Glencore copper guidance shift: long-term 1.6 Mt/y plan unpacked for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Glencore plans to lift copper output to about 1.6 Mt/y by 2035 and above 1 Mt/y by 2028, but has cut its 2026 guidance to 810,000–870,000 t from 930,000 t after setbacks at Chile’s Collahuasi joint venture with Anglo American. The company will restart the Alumbrera mine in Argentina in Q4 2026, targeting over four years some 75,000 t copper, 317,000 oz gold and 1,000 t molybdenum, using existing MARA concentrator and logistics infrastructure for brownfield synergies. A $1 billion cost-saving drive by end‑2025 includes about 1,000 job cuts and a broad operational review.
Technical Brief
- Glencore states the Alumbrera restart will de‑risk MARA ramp‑up by pre‑conditioning concentrator and downstream logistics.
- Workforce retention and retraining at Alumbrera are planned to bridge the gap to first MARA ore.
- Critical site infrastructure at Alumbrera will be kept energised and maintained for shared MARA use, limiting new-build capex.
- Management describes the portfolio growth projects as “mostly brownfield”, signalling preference for debottlenecking and expansions over greenfield builds.
- A recurring $1 billion cost‑saving target by end‑2025, including ~1,000 job cuts, will influence operating and sustaining‑capex envelopes.
Our Take
The reiterated 1 Mt/y copper output target by 2028 aligns with Glencore’s parallel move into downstream capacity, such as the MoU with Codelco for a new Chilean smelter, signalling a strategy to secure treatment routes for higher concentrate volumes from assets like Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca.
With copper prices in our coverage up about 30% this year and spot levels recently breaking records above $11,400/t, Glencore’s plan to reach 1.6 Mt/y by 2035 positions it to monetise any sustained tightness in refined copper supply rather than chasing near-term volume at higher cost.
The restart of Alumbrera infrastructure for the MARA project in Argentina’s Catamarca Province fits a pattern in our database of Latin American copper growth relying on brownfield or hybrid developments, which typically shorten lead times and capex compared with new greenfield builds.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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