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    Glencore copper guidance shift: long-term 1.6 Mt/y plan unpacked for mine planners

    December 4, 2025|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Glencore copper guidance shift: long-term 1.6 Mt/y plan unpacked for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Glencore plans to lift copper output to about 1.6 Mt/y by 2035 and above 1 Mt/y by 2028, but has cut its 2026 guidance to 810,000–870,000 t from 930,000 t after setbacks at Chile’s Collahuasi joint venture with Anglo American. The company will restart the Alumbrera mine in Argentina in Q4 2026, targeting over four years some 75,000 t copper, 317,000 oz gold and 1,000 t molybdenum, using existing MARA concentrator and logistics infrastructure for brownfield synergies. A $1 billion cost-saving drive by end‑2025 includes about 1,000 job cuts and a broad operational review.

    Technical Brief

    • Glencore states the Alumbrera restart will de‑risk MARA ramp‑up by pre‑conditioning concentrator and downstream logistics.
    • Workforce retention and retraining at Alumbrera are planned to bridge the gap to first MARA ore.
    • Critical site infrastructure at Alumbrera will be kept energised and maintained for shared MARA use, limiting new-build capex.
    • Management describes the portfolio growth projects as “mostly brownfield”, signalling preference for debottlenecking and expansions over greenfield builds.
    • A recurring $1 billion cost‑saving target by end‑2025, including ~1,000 job cuts, will influence operating and sustaining‑capex envelopes.

    Our Take

    The reiterated 1 Mt/y copper output target by 2028 aligns with Glencore’s parallel move into downstream capacity, such as the MoU with Codelco for a new Chilean smelter, signalling a strategy to secure treatment routes for higher concentrate volumes from assets like Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca.

    With copper prices in our coverage up about 30% this year and spot levels recently breaking records above $11,400/t, Glencore’s plan to reach 1.6 Mt/y by 2035 positions it to monetise any sustained tightness in refined copper supply rather than chasing near-term volume at higher cost.

    The restart of Alumbrera infrastructure for the MARA project in Argentina’s Catamarca Province fits a pattern in our database of Latin American copper growth relying on brownfield or hybrid developments, which typically shorten lead times and capex compared with new greenfield builds.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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