More than 70 critical minerals agreements have been signed since 2021, but over 60% are non‑binding frameworks without concrete investment, production, procurement or financing commitments, leaving China’s 60–90% control of rare earths refining and other midstream capacity largely unchallenged. The US has inked over 20 deals in 18 months and launched initiatives such as FORGE and the US‑EU‑Japan framework, yet only a handful are legally binding, creating a gap between diplomatic ambition and bankable project support. Africa, despite holding over 60% of global cobalt reserves, features in relatively few agreements, with contrasting cases such as a binding US‑DRC cobalt deal and Zambia’s rejection of proposed US conditions signalling producer countries’ growing leverage to demand local processing, infrastructure and policy flexibility.

The US House has passed H.R. 7037, the DOMINANCE (Developing Overseas Mineral Investments and New Allied Networks for Critical Energies) Act, aimed at cutting reliance on China, which currently controls about 90% of global rare earth processing capacity. The legislation focuses on overseas strategic mineral investments with allies, expanded energy diplomacy, and workforce development to support mining, processing, refining, and recycling. Backers include the National Association of Manufacturers, the Information Technology Industry Council, SAFE’s Center for Critical Minerals Strategy, and the US-ASEAN Business Council.

China has confirmed that its January export ban on dual-use rare earth products for Japanese military use remains in force, despite a reported US request to resume sales over technology supply chain concerns. Foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said rare earths stay classified as “dual-use materials” under Chinese law and linked the move to containing Japanese remilitarisation and nuclear ambitions, even as customs data show overall Chinese rare earth exports hitting a four‑month high in May but still below last year. Japan is responding by building alternative supply, including a A$1.6 billion rare earths deal with Australia and a “trilateral buyers” club with France and Canada.