US $1B Latin America critical minerals push: project risk lens for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
More than $1 billion in US-backed loans, equity and offtake deals has flowed into Latin American critical minerals since January 2025, including a $100 million Inter-American Development Bank loan for a $2.5 billion lithium project in Argentina and a proposed $465 million US Development Finance Corporation stake in Serra Verde’s rare earths mine in Goiás, Brazil. Argentina’s RIGI regime has already underpinned Rio Tinto’s $2.5 billion Salta lithium project and lifted national lithium capacity from 75,500 t/y in 2023 to about 186,000 t/y in 2025, with 658,000 t/y targeted by 2035. Geopolitically driven capital is accelerating lithium, rare earth and copper developments, but permitting, resource nationalism and EU/US merger scrutiny, such as the Phase II review of MMG’s bid for Anglo’s Brazilian nickel assets, remain critical schedule risks.
Technical Brief
- Serra Verde’s proposed $465m DFC funding targets expansion of rare earths output in Goiás, Brazil.
- Brazil holds about 23.3% of global rare earth reserves yet delivers only ~0.02% of production.
- Argentina’s RIGI regime applies only to projects exceeding $200m capex, locking in tax and FX stability.
- Latin America controls roughly 60% of global lithium reserves, anchoring long-term brine and hard‑rock project pipelines.
Our Take
The prospective US Development Finance Corporation backing for Serra Verde in Goiás taps into a rare case where Brazil holds an estimated 23.3% of global rare earth reserves but only about 0.02% of production, signalling room for rapid scale-up if permitting and processing capacity can be unlocked.
The $2.5 billion Rio Tinto lithium project in Salta, already approved under Argentina’s RIGI regime, aligns with our other coverage of Rincon’s early exports, suggesting that US- and multilateral-backed finance is likely to prioritise projects that can move quickly from pilot shipments to full battery-grade output.
With Latin America holding around 60% of global lithium reserves and copper demand projected to nearly double by 2035, the US push into Argentina, Chile and Brazil positions these jurisdictions as key alternatives to China-centred supply chains, but also increases policy risk exposure given recent institutional changes in Chile’s mining governance highlighted in our database.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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