Novagold’s Donlin update: capex surge and NPV uplift explained for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Novagold’s Donlin Gold project in southwest Alaska now carries an initial capital cost estimate of $9.2 billion (up 25%) and sustaining capital of $2.3 billion (up 35%), but its post-tax NPV has risen to $5.1 billion at $2,100/oz and 5% discount, with a 10.3% IRR and $19.6 billion after-tax cash flow. The 27-year operation is underpinned by 560 million measured and indicated tonnes at 2.22 g/t Au (about 40 million oz) plus 88.9 million inferred tonnes at 2.03 g/t, based on drilling to end-2024 by Wood Group and Geosyntec. Owners Novagold (60%) and John Paulson (40%) plan to appoint a prime contractor in Q1 for a new bankable feasibility study, targeting construction from 2027 and commercial production from 2031.
Technical Brief
- Operating costs have risen 27% since 2021 to $24.5 billion due to items such as energy, labour, consumables and freight.
- Payback will be achieved 6.5 years after the start of production.
- Paulson paid Barrick $800 million, while Novagold paid $200 million to acquire Barrick’s 50% joint-venture interest, resulting in Novagold holding 60% and Paulson 40%.
- Donlin’s owners are aiming to select a prime contractor during the first quarter to conduct the feasibility study, which they want completed sometime in the next two years.
- For large remote gold projects, the Donlin update underlines sensitivity of NPV to operating cost inflation and logistics.
Our Take
With Donlin’s updated capex at US$9.2 billion and a 27-year mine life in remote southwest Alaska, the project now sits at the very top end of gold-project capital intensity in our database, implying long-lead commitments for bulk earthworks, power and logistics contractors once financing is locked in.
The move for Novagold and John Paulson to acquire Barrick Mining’s 50% stake fundamentally shifts Donlin from a major–major JV to a financial-investor-backed vehicle, which typically gives engineering houses such as Wood Group and Geosyntec more latitude to optimise phasing and risk allocation rather than conforming to a major’s standardised project template.
Among the 738 Mining stories in our coverage, Donlin’s 40 Moz measured and indicated inventory places it alongside only a handful of tier-one undeveloped gold assets, which tends to attract interest from large equipment suppliers like Komatsu dealers referenced in the SMS Equipment–Suomen Rakennuskone item as they position for future fleet contracts in the Americas.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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