HSBC’s $5,000 gold call: price volatility and planning notes for mine projects
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold could spike to $5,050/oz in the first half of 2026 before potentially correcting to as low as $3,950/oz later in the year, according to HSBC’s latest forecast, which assumes elevated geopolitical risk and ongoing US Federal Reserve rate cuts. The bank now projects an average 2026 price of $4,587/oz and an end‑2026 level of $4,450/oz, with “high volatility” driven by central bank buying, a weaker US dollar and flows into gold‑backed ETFs. Longer term, HSBC lifts its average forecasts to $4,625/oz for 2027, $4,700/oz for 2028 and $4,775/oz for 2029.
Technical Brief
- HSBC widens its 2026 trading envelope to a $1,100/oz band between $5,050 and $3,950.
- The bank trims its 2026 average forecast by $13/oz, from $4,600 to $4,587.
- End‑2026 point forecast is set at $4,450/oz, implying a softening from the projected intra‑year peak.
- Analysts flag a “significant” downside correction risk if Fed rate cuts pause or reverse.
- Strong official‑sector (central bank) purchases are cited as a primary structural demand driver.
- Ongoing US dollar weakness and allocations into gold‑backed ETFs are expected to amplify price volatility.
- A new 2029 average forecast of $4,775/oz provides a four‑year forward price anchor for long‑life projects.
Our Take
HSBC also features in recent coverage of sharp silver and copper price swings, suggesting its $5,000/oz gold call will likely be read by funds in the context of broader cross‑metal positioning rather than gold in isolation.
China’s moves to curb rare earth and other critical mineral exports to Japan, highlighted in another related piece, imply that a structurally tighter supply picture for neodymium‑praseodymium and copper could reinforce safe‑haven and scarcity narratives that support bullish gold forecasts into 2026.
Within our 539 Mining stories, gold and rare earths frequently appear together with US and Chinese policy references, indicating that macro and geopolitical drivers (Fed policy, export controls) are increasingly co‑moving price expectations across these commodity classes rather than just affecting gold alone.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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