Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Streamlined.

© 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    AllGeotechnicalMiningInfrastructureMaterialsHazardsEnvironmentalSoftwarePolicy
    Projects

    HSBC’s $5,000 gold call: price volatility and planning notes for mine projects

    January 9, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    HSBC’s $5,000 gold call: price volatility and planning notes for mine projects

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Gold could spike to $5,050/oz in the first half of 2026 before potentially correcting to as low as $3,950/oz later in the year, according to HSBC’s latest forecast, which assumes elevated geopolitical risk and ongoing US Federal Reserve rate cuts. The bank now projects an average 2026 price of $4,587/oz and an end‑2026 level of $4,450/oz, with “high volatility” driven by central bank buying, a weaker US dollar and flows into gold‑backed ETFs. Longer term, HSBC lifts its average forecasts to $4,625/oz for 2027, $4,700/oz for 2028 and $4,775/oz for 2029.

    Technical Brief

    • HSBC widens its 2026 trading envelope to a $1,100/oz band between $5,050 and $3,950.
    • The bank trims its 2026 average forecast by $13/oz, from $4,600 to $4,587.
    • End‑2026 point forecast is set at $4,450/oz, implying a softening from the projected intra‑year peak.
    • Analysts flag a “significant” downside correction risk if Fed rate cuts pause or reverse.
    • Strong official‑sector (central bank) purchases are cited as a primary structural demand driver.
    • Ongoing US dollar weakness and allocations into gold‑backed ETFs are expected to amplify price volatility.
    • A new 2029 average forecast of $4,775/oz provides a four‑year forward price anchor for long‑life projects.

    Our Take

    HSBC also features in recent coverage of sharp silver and copper price swings, suggesting its $5,000/oz gold call will likely be read by funds in the context of broader cross‑metal positioning rather than gold in isolation.

    China’s moves to curb rare earth and other critical mineral exports to Japan, highlighted in another related piece, imply that a structurally tighter supply picture for neodymium‑praseodymium and copper could reinforce safe‑haven and scarcity narratives that support bullish gold forecasts into 2026.

    Within our 539 Mining stories, gold and rare earths frequently appear together with US and Chinese policy references, indicating that macro and geopolitical drivers (Fed policy, export controls) are increasingly co‑moving price expectations across these commodity classes rather than just affecting gold alone.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    Mining
    about 8 hours ago

    Derrick Experience Center: fine screening test gains and risks for plant engineers

    Derrick Corporation has opened its Derrick Experience Center (DEX Center) in January 2026 to mark its 75th anniversary, creating a dedicated test hub for advanced fine screening technology. The “first-of-its-kind” facility is designed for current and prospective customers to run full-scale trials on Derrick high-frequency screens and Polyweb® urethane panels under controlled conditions, rather than relying solely on on-site pilots. The centre is intended to shorten test campaigns, de-risk screen selection, and optimise cut size and throughput for fine coal, iron ore, base metals and industrial minerals circuits.

    University of Arizona mine waste project: key processing insights for engineers
    Mining
    about 21 hours ago

    University of Arizona mine waste project: key processing insights for engineers

    A $3.6 million Arbor-funded University of Arizona Tailings Center project, led by mining engineer Dr Isabel Barton, is evaluating whether 17.5 billion tons of historic copper tailings in Arizona—growing by ~100 million tonnes per year—can be reprocessed to recover critical minerals and reduce environmental risk. The team is combining statewide and UAV-based remote sensing, industry tailings datasets, drilling and surface sampling, mineralogical characterisation and techno-economic analysis using magnetic separation and basic leaching. Early work has identified unexpected mineral occurrences, including arsenic, zinc and possibly tungsten, which could justify flowsheet changes to keep these elements out of future tailings.

    La Mancha sells down Endeavour Mining stake: asset and jurisdiction signals for mine planners
    Mining
    1 day ago

    La Mancha sells down Endeavour Mining stake: asset and jurisdiction signals for mine planners

    La Mancha Resource Capital has sold a 3.5% stake in Endeavour Mining via a C$71.25-per-share bought deal worth about C$605 million, cutting its holding from roughly 15% to 11% while retaining board representation through Naguib Sawiris. Endeavour, now valued around C$17.5 billion after a 191% share price rise in 12 months, produces in the mid- to high-900,000-oz.-per-year range from West African assets including Houndé (Burkina Faso) and Ity and Agbaou (Côte d’Ivoire). The move comes as Burkina Faso has nationalised Endeavour’s former Boungou and Wahgnion mines, paying about $80 million and asserting full state control.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.