Goldman on copper above $11,000/t: price path and project signals for engineers
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper’s surge above $11,000/t on the LME, including a record $11,540/t print, is unlikely to persist, with Goldman Sachs analysts led by Aurelia Waltham projecting 2025 prices constrained to a $10,000–$11,000/t range and a modest 2026 surplus of about 160,000 t. The bank sees no structural global shortage before at least 2029, noting 2025 demand remains roughly 500,000 t below supply and warning that Chinese consumption could fall nearly 8% year-on-year in Q4. Mercuria’s Kostas Bintas, by contrast, flags “extreme” market dislocations from US-bound flows that could leave non-US markets short of copper cathodes.
Technical Brief
- Copper briefly printed a record $11,540/t on the London Metal Exchange before analyst pushback.
- Goldman attributes the rally to expectations of future tightness, not current physical fundamentals.
- Mercuria reports “ongoing US-bound flows” are draining cathode availability in China and other regions.
- Kostas Bintas warns non‑US markets could “be left without copper cathodes” under current trade flows.
- Goldman flags “critically low” inventories outside the US but expects relief via higher regional premiums.
- Tighter LME spreads are cited as a mechanism to redirect metal towards deficit regions without true shortage.
- Disruptions at major copper mines through 2025 have constrained supply even as overall demand growth softens.
Our Take
Copper is one of the most heavily covered commodities in our mining database, and price calls like Goldman Sachs Group’s tend to feed directly into deferral or redesign decisions on marginal copper projects tagged under 'Projects', especially in the US and Latin America.
A forecast 8% year-on-year slump in Chinese copper consumption in Q4 implies that developers in Europe and the United States may lean harder on non-Chinese demand drivers (grid upgrades, data centres, defence) when justifying new copper capacity to financiers.
The presence of antimony alongside copper and gold in this piece aligns with a small cluster of critical-mineral stories in our coverage, signalling that traders such as Mercuria Energy Group are increasingly framing base-metal outlooks together with strategic minor metals rather than in isolation.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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