Goldman gold price poll: project economics and hedging takeaways for miners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Almost 70% of global institutional investors expect further gold price gains in 2025, with a Goldman Sachs poll indicating consensus that new record highs are more likely in 2026 than next year. Respondents cited persistent geopolitical risk and expectations of lower real US interest rates as the main price drivers, rather than short-term jewellery or industrial demand. For miners and project developers, the outlook supports continued investment in marginal orebodies and higher-cost operations, but also raises pressure to lock in prices via hedging strategies.
Technical Brief
- Central bank net purchases were widely expected to remain positive, supporting long-term demand for mined ounces.
- Many respondents anticipated limited growth in primary mine supply, citing permitting delays and reserve depletion.
- Several investors flagged higher sustaining capital and development capex as constraining future greenfield and brownfield output.
- For project pipelines, respondents indicated stronger appetite for late-stage, construction-ready gold projects over early exploration.
Our Take
With almost 70% of institutional investors in the Goldman Sachs poll expecting further gains in gold, the positive price sentiment aligns with a cluster of recent project updates in our database, from Allied Gold’s new targets in Ethiopia to Native Mineral Resources’ output milestone in Queensland, signalling that juniors and mid-tiers may find it easier to justify aggressive exploration budgets.
The bullish outlook for gold prices into next year could materially improve project economics for mid-scale developments such as Dundee Precious Metals’ Serbian gold project, where modest changes in the long-term price deck can shift internal rates of return enough to unlock financing or expansion options.
Across the 211 tag-matched ‘Projects’ pieces in our coverage, gold features heavily, and the combination of stronger price expectations and new underground access at assets like Southern Cross Gold’s Sunday Creek project suggests more operators may pivot to deeper, higher-grade targets that were previously marginal at lower price assumptions.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
Related Articles
Related Industries & Products
Mining
Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.
Construction
Quality control software for construction companies with material testing, batch tracking, and compliance management.
CMRR-io
Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.
HYDROGEO-io
Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.
GEODB-io
Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.