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    Copper price sets new London record: supply squeeze signals for mine planners

    December 4, 2025|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Copper price sets new London record: supply squeeze signals for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange hit a new record above $11,400 per tonne after a surge in warehouse withdrawal orders signalled rapidly tightening available stocks and pushed the global benchmark up more than 30% year-to-date. Traders are diverting large volumes of metal to US ports as Comex futures price in potential 50% tariffs on primary copper from 2027, while producers prepare record 2026 premiums for European and Asian buyers. Supply risk is amplified by mine disruptions at Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula complex in the DRC and Glencore’s 40% output drop since 2018, raising the prospect of a Q1 2026 squeeze.

    Technical Brief

    • Price action breached a fresh intraday high above $11,400/t before settling near $11,100/t.
    • July Comex copper futures previously hit a record when markets pre‑positioned for a possible 50% US tariff.
    • Trump’s current tariff decision targets only value‑added copper products, but explicitly leaves primary forms under review for 2027.
    • Ivanhoe Mines has cut guidance at the Kamoa‑Kakula DRC complex due to ongoing post‑flooding recovery constraints.
    • Chinese smelters’ 2026 supply negotiations are described as difficult, with miners holding stronger leverage on terms.
    • For project planning, long‑lead copper‑intensive infrastructure may need revised capex contingencies and procurement lead times.

    Our Take

    With LME copper up about 30% this year and tin futures also near multi‑year highs in the recent tin‑market piece (14 November 2025), our database is signalling a broader tightening across multiple LME‑traded base metals rather than a copper‑only squeeze.

    The anticipated 50% US tariff on copper imports from July and potential levies on commodity‑grade copper from 2027 will likely push US buyers to secure more supply from Latin American projects, echoing the IDB/EU‑backed push to build copper value chains in the region highlighted in the Latin America critical minerals article.

    Glencore’s roughly 40% drop in copper output since 2018, combined with the Kamoa‑Kakula complex emerging as a key Democratic Republic of Congo supplier, suggests new African production is increasingly offsetting legacy producer decline in our copper‑tagged coverage.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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