Copper price record run: Citi’s bullish call and what it means for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange jumped 2.2% to a record $11,705/t on Friday as Citigroup forecast a copper deficit driven by US stockpiling and predicted prices could reach $13,000/t in Q2 2026. Citi, led by analyst Max Layton, expects global end-use demand to rise 2.5% in 2026 on lower interest rates, US fiscal expansion, European rearmament and energy-transition spending, while inventories on global exchanges have climbed to 656,000 t, about 60% in Comex warehouses. Goldman Sachs and Macquarie counter that physical supply remains adequate and see prices above $11,000/t as unsustainable before at least 2029.
Technical Brief
- Mercuria has reportedly ordered about $500 million of copper for withdrawal from LME warehouses.
- Exchange inventories exceed 656,000 t, the highest since 2018, with ~60% stored in US Comex.
- BloombergNEF projects the copper market moves into structural deficit from next year, widening over a decade.
- Goldman Sachs judges global copper supply “adequate” and does not foresee a physical shortage before 2029.
- Macquarie, led by Peter Taylor, views prices above $11,000/t as unsustainable in a non‑tight physical market.
- Benchmark Minerals questions “genuine end‑use demand”, suggesting prices reflect “tomorrow’s hope” over current fundamentals.
- Previous all‑time copper price highs were followed by price pressure in subsequent weeks, Benchmark notes.
Our Take
With copper up about 30% in London this year and Comex now holding roughly 60% of global exchange inventories, US‑centric inventory squeezes are likely to have outsized influence on benchmark pricing and hedging costs for projects worldwide.
Citi’s bullish copper stance sits alongside Norway’s 2029 moratorium on deep sea mining in our coverage, signalling that near‑term supply tightness will need to be managed largely through brownfield expansions and higher recovery rates rather than new frontier sources.
The combination of a 2.5% forecast rise in end‑use copper consumption and a $500 million LME withdrawal by Mercuria underlines that traders, not just producers, are increasingly dictating short‑term physical availability, which project developers must factor into offtake and financing strategies.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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