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    Copper price plunges in New York: supply, tariffs and demand risks for mine planners

    December 29, 2025|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Copper price plunges in New York: supply, tariffs and demand risks for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper prices briefly surged towards $13,000/t on the LME on Monday, with a 6.6% intraday jump, while CME March futures in New York swung from a $5.92/lb peak to $5.56/lb, a 6% plunge that erased Friday’s gains. The metal is up about 35% in 2025 as US tariff fears on copper under President Trump drive front‑loaded imports, even as Chinese demand softens and mine disruptions at Grasberg, Kamoa‑Kakula and El Teniente constrain supply. BloombergNEF projects energy‑transition demand could triple by 2045, risking market deficits from 2026 and potential shortages of up to 19 Mt by 2050 without major new projects and recycling.

    Technical Brief

    • Grasberg accident led Freeport-McMoRan to declare force majeure and cut 2026 copper output guidance.
    • Freeport reports Grasberg’s full production only expected back online in 2027, extending concentrate tightness.
    • Kamoa-Kakula underground flood in May curtailed ramp-up at a mine slated to be third-largest globally.
    • Fatal rock blast at Codelco’s El Teniente in July further reduced Chilean underground copper output.
    • Analysts typically assume up to 6% annual supply disruption, but 2025 outages exceeded these planning allowances.
    • Slow permitting and escalating capital costs are delaying new copper projects needed to backfill lost tonnage.
    • BloombergNEF links future copper deficits primarily to lagging project delivery relative to energy-transition demand growth.

    Our Take

    The projected 19 million tonne copper shortfall by 2050 aligns with our other Kamoa-Kakula coverage, where Ivanhoe Mines is already signalling a temporary dip in output around 2026, suggesting that even tier-one assets in the DRC will not fully close the structural gap implied by these forecasts.

    With China accounting for roughly half of global copper demand and also being central in US scrutiny of Ivanhoe Atlantic’s Chinese links, any policy or trade friction around Chinese offtake could amplify the kind of price volatility seen between London and New York benchmarks.

    Among the 458 Mining stories in our database, copper repeatedly appears alongside energy-transition themes, and the note that transition-linked demand could triple by 2045 indicates that long-life assets like Grasberg, El Teniente and Kamoa-Kakula are likely to retain pricing power even through short-term futures sell-offs.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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