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    Canadian nickel exporters and EU CBAM: carbon-cost edge explained for mine planners

    January 12, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Canadian nickel exporters and EU CBAM: carbon-cost edge explained for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, now fully pricing imports at roughly €90/t CO2, could give Canadian nickel a cost edge if nickel is added in a future CBAM expansion expected to be considered around 2028. Canada Nickel’s Crawford sulphide project near Timmins is targeting 30,000 t/y of nickel initially, ramping to 50,000 t/y after 2028, with 60–70% destined for export, positioning it for potential EU demand. Skarn Associates’ data cited by the Mining Association of Canada show Canadian nickel among the lowest-carbon globally, contrasting sharply with coal-powered Indonesian production.

    Technical Brief

    • EU ETS-linked CBAM price near €90/t CO2 directly sets the import carbon cost for covered goods.
    • Nickel’s exclusion contrasts with copper, lead and zinc, which the Commission has indicated are unlikely future candidates.
    • Crawford nickel sulphide project north of Timmins is being advanced towards construction start by end‑2026.
    • Around 30–40% of Crawford output is targeted for domestic Canadian sales, the remainder for export.
    • Indonesia is singled out as a high‑emission benchmark due to coal‑fired power underpinning its nickel production.

    Our Take

    With Indonesia already accounting for 51% of global nickel output, the EU’s move to price embedded carbon at around €90/t CO2 effectively creates a premium niche for lower-emission suppliers such as Canada and Finland, rather than materially denting Indonesian volume in the short term.

    EU import data showing Canada at 24% of nickel ore and concentrate supply but only 7% of refined nickel suggests midstream and refining capacity in Canada (including projects like Crawford) will be critical if exporters want to capture the full value of any CBAM-driven green premium.

    Our database includes several 2025–26 nickel market outlooks warning of potential mid‑2030s shortfalls; if those demand scenarios materialise, CBAM’s phase‑in to 2034 could tighten the window for higher‑carbon producers to retrofit while giving Canadian sulphide projects more leverage in offtake talks with EU steel and battery customers.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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