Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

    Geomechanics.io

    Geomechanics, Streamlined.

    © 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

    Geomechanics.io

    CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

    Industries

    MiningConstructionTunnelling

    Company

    Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    Projects

    US copper tariffs outlook after critical minerals move: key points for mine planners

    January 29, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    US copper tariffs outlook after critical minerals move: key points for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    US copper tariffs now look less likely after the White House’s Section 232 decision on processed critical minerals directed the Commerce Department to pursue supply agreements first, with Macquarie’s Alice Fox saying this “significantly weakens the case for copper tariffs”. Comex copper inventories have already climbed about 412,000 tonnes since December 2024, with a further estimated 375,000 tonnes off-exchange, while CME-LME arbitrage for January–March has dropped to zero or negative, starting to pull metal out of US warehouses. A US-backed Mercuria–DRC joint venture giving US buyers first refusal on roughly 500,000 tonnes of copper and 40,000 tonnes of cobalt per year further supports a delay in any tariff decision, but a final rejection of tariffs could rapidly release US stocks and hit prices.

    Technical Brief

    • Section 232 outcome on processed critical minerals keeps tariffs as a contingent tool, not immediate policy.
    • Silver’s 2024 experience shows tariff fears can spike Comex stocks, drain LBMA liquidity and lift lease rates.
    • That silver dislocation reversed metal flows New York→London once exchange arbitrage flipped, a template now watched for copper.
    • Negative CME–LME copper arbitrage has already drawn 8,700 t into LME sheds at New Orleans and Baltimore in one week.
    • Elevated European copper premiums are diverting contract tonnage originally nominated for US delivery into EU markets.
    • Macquarie notes US‑held copper is not yet priced for re‑export, but could be if ex‑China markets tighten.

    Our Take

    Macquarie also features in our late-2025 coverage of record LME copper prices driven by US stockpiling, so its view that US tariffs on refined copper are now less likely signals a potential softening of one of the demand-side drivers it previously highlighted.

    With around 70% of US net refined copper imports at stake, any easing of tariff risk tends to favour established exporters in regions like Europe and Latin America, while putting more pressure on higher-cost US projects that were banking on protection to justify capex.

    The sharp build in Comex silver inventories and the 10–30% order book declines flagged by Goldman in this copper-focused piece echo the volatility seen in our recent silver and copper price coverage, suggesting traders may lean more heavily on futures and inventory management rather than new mine supply through to the end of the year.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    Mining
    about 1 hour ago

    Anglo Asian–Worley Xarxar, Garadag studies: capex and layout insights for mine planners

    Anglo Asian Mining has appointed Worley Europe Limited to deliver full feasibility studies for its Xarxar and Garadag copper-gold projects in Azerbaijan, moving both assets towards potential development decisions. Worley, part of Australia-headquartered Worley Group, will apply its global open-pit and processing-plant design capability to define mine layouts, metallurgical flowsheets and infrastructure requirements. The work is expected to firm up capital and operating cost estimates and clarify options for staged development and shared infrastructure across the two deposits.

    Mining
    about 1 hour ago

    Veracio–Bureau Veritas Latin America rollout: drill-to-model gains for mine teams

    Veracio and Bureau Veritas have signed an MoU to roll out Veracio’s advanced geological scanning technologies across Chile, Peru, Argentina and Brazil, with scope to extend into other Latin American markets. The collaboration is expected to pair Veracio’s digital core scanning and downhole sensing tools with Bureau Veritas’ regional laboratory and inspection network to speed up geological data acquisition and QA/QC. For miners, this could tighten drill-to-model cycles, improve orebody characterisation and standardise high-resolution geoscientific datasets across multiple operations.

    Mining
    about 1 hour ago

    Sandvik–Diemme Filtration deal: integrated dewatering flowsheets for mine designers

    Sandvik has agreed to acquire Italy-based Diemme Filtration, adding high-performance mining filter presses and dewatering systems as a new Filtration division within its Rock Processing business area. Diemme’s portfolio includes large automated filter presses for tailings and concentrate dewatering, targeting dry-stack tailings and reduced process water consumption in large concentrators. The move gives Sandvik an in-house solution for integrating crushing, screening and filtration flowsheets, with potential implications for tailings storage design and water balance in brownfield and greenfield plants.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.

    AllGeotechnicalMiningInfrastructureMaterialsHazardsEnvironmentalSoftwarePolicy