Uranium’s multi-year structural bull market: supply–demand lens for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Uranium prices are forecast by Abu Dhabi-based Teniz Capital to enter a “long-duration structural bull market”, with a 3–4x price increase possible as primary mine output covers only 74–90% of current reactor demand and secondary inventories are largely exhausted. The bank projects uranium demand to rise 28% by 2030 and double by 2040, with new mines needing 10–15 years to come online, making the 2030s supply deficit effectively “programmed”. Kazatomprom, supplying about 39–43% of global production and controlling most ISR-suitable reserves, is identified as a systemically critical, low-cost producer with no comparable alternative this side of 2045.
Technical Brief
- Spot uranium rebounded from a 2016–2017 low of ~$18/lb to $106/lb in early 2024.
- Prices then consolidated in a $73–80/lb band by end‑2024, indicating a new, higher cost base.
- Teniz Capital characterises current supply as “structurally short”, driven by years of underinvestment in new mines.
- Secondary supplies (commercial inventories and reprocessed material) are described as “largely depleted”, removing a historic balancing mechanism.
- Development lead times of 10–15 years mean today’s project pipeline cannot materially affect 2030s supply.
Our Take
With uranium and uranium concentrate flagged in only 18 keyword-matched pieces across 798 Mining stories, this projected 3–4x price uplift suggests uranium is still under-represented in deal and project coverage relative to other critical minerals like copper and niobium in our database.
The dominance of Kazatomprom in Russia and Central Asia, combined with US and French nuclear demand, implies utilities in the United States and France may face similar supply-security questions now being debated for other critical minerals under recent US Section 232 decisions referenced in our copper and critical minerals coverage.
Cyclic Materials’ $82M rare earth recycling plant in South Carolina, alongside other rare earth project updates such as Victory Metals’ North Stanmore work, signals that midstream and recycling capacity for rare earths is scaling faster than primary uranium mine development, potentially tightening the relative bottleneck on nuclear fuel rather than on associated magnet materials.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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