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    UBS copper price upgrade: project pipeline and offtake signals for mine planners

    November 25, 2025|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    UBS copper price upgrade: project pipeline and offtake signals for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    UBS has raised its 2026 copper price forecasts to $11,500/t for March, $12,000/t for June and $12,500/t for September on mounting supply concerns. The bank’s revised curve signals expectations of tighter concentrate availability and potential delays to new sulphide projects, with implications for long-term offtake contracts and smelter treatment charge negotiations. Miners and project developers may see stronger incentives to advance brownfield debottlenecking and higher-grade underground expansions to capture the forecast price uplift.

    Technical Brief

    • Higher forward prices increase the net present value of long-lead copper sulphide projects in feasibility stages.
    • Long-term offtake models will need updated price decks for reserve reporting and project finance covenants.
    • Elevated pricing favours projects with existing milling capacity that can accept incremental sulphide feed.
    • Hedging strategies for new mines may shift towards shorter-dated collars to retain upside to higher forward levels.
    • For developers, the outlook strengthens the case for accelerating permitting schedules and front-end engineering.

    Our Take

    Higher copper price forecasts into the successive quarters of 2026 strengthen the economics of new-build projects like Harmony’s Eva development in Queensland, potentially pulling marginal or previously delayed copper projects in Australia back into contention.

    For existing producers such as Anglo American’s Quellaveco in Peru, a stronger 2026 copper price deck from a house like UBS typically supports reserve expansion drilling and pushback decisions, as more low-grade material can be booked as economically mineable.

    Restarts of assets like Cyprium Metals’ Nifty Copper Complex in Western Australia are often the first to respond to bullish bank forecasts, suggesting that UBS’s upgraded 2026 view could accelerate reactivation of other mothballed heap leach–SX-EW operations in our copper project coverage.

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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