Sprott on investors favouring North American assets: risk and project cues for miners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Rising resource nationalism in parts of Africa, including Mali’s seizure of about three tonnes of gold from Barrick and a yearlong tax dispute that halted operations, is pushing investors and miners towards North American assets, says Sprott CIO Maria Smirnova. She cites Fresnillo’s C$780 million cash bid for Probe Gold and Sprott funds trimming exposure to African-focused companies as evidence of the shift, while remaining positive on Mexico as permitting under Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to accelerate. Smirnova also notes silver’s 141% 12‑month price surge to about $81.25/oz, with a projected sixth consecutive market deficit in 2026 driven by strong physical investment demand.
Technical Brief
- Mali’s military government physically seized about three tonnes of Barrick’s produced gold over alleged tax arrears.
- The seizure triggered a yearlong dispute during which Barrick suspended operations at its Malian mine.
- Smirnova manages Sprott vehicles including the Sprott Silver Strategy, Active Metals & Miners ETF and Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF.
- Some Sprott-managed funds have already reduced positions in companies with African operating exposure, though no names were disclosed.
- Fresnillo’s October agreement to buy Probe Gold is structured as an all-cash C$780 million transaction.
- In Mexico, the January kidnapping of 10 Vizsla Silver employees is flagged as a non-trivial security risk.
- Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is explicitly targeting shorter mining permitting timelines to unlock additional long-term capital deployment.
Our Take
The combination of a projected six-year silver market deficit and a 141% 12‑month price gain puts Mexico- and US-focused silver names like Fresnillo and Vizsla Silver in a stronger position to fund North American growth internally, reducing reliance on higher-risk African jurisdictions.
Fresnillo’s C$780 million all-cash move on Probe Gold aligns with a pattern in our Mining coverage where M&A capital is rotating into Canada- and US‑listed gold and silver equities, signalling that acquirers are willing to pay up for perceived jurisdictional safety in North America over assets in the Sahel and wider Africa.
With Asia pledging $30 billion in energy and mineral deals with the US, North American copper, uranium and lithium developers in our database are likely to see more structured offtake and JV-style financing interest, which could further widen the funding gap versus African projects facing security or governance headwinds.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
Related Articles
Related Industries & Products
Mining
Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.
CMRR-io
Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.
HYDROGEO-io
Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.
GEODB-io
Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.