Silver price slide on index rebalancing: planning signals for mine projects
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Silver prices fell as much as 5% to $73.91/oz on Thursday, extending a 4% drop from the previous session after briefly breaking above $80/oz earlier in the week, as funds positioned for annual commodity index rebalancing. Citigroup estimates around $6.8 billion of silver futures – roughly 12% of Comex open interest – may be sold, with silver-backed ETFs already recording their largest one-day outflow since October. Despite the volatility and outsized index impact on silver versus gold, major banks remain bullish, with HSBC projecting gold at $5,000/oz in H1 2026 amid geopolitical risk and fiscal strain.
Technical Brief
- Citigroup forecasts silver futures selling equivalent to about 12% of total Comex open interest.
- JPMorgan notes last year’s similar index-driven precious metals selloff produced no clear long-term market drag.
- Silver-backed ETFs recorded their largest single-day outflow since October on the Wednesday before the slide.
- Citi strategist Kenny Hu reports current silver flows are materially larger than any seen in prior rebalances.
- Silver’s 150% annual gain was amplified by a historic short squeeze in October 2025.
- Gold logged its strongest annual performance since 1979, with 50 separate record highs during 2025.
- Central bank buying, ETF inflows and a weaker US dollar collectively underpinned gold’s 2025 price strength.
- HSBC’s James Steel links his $5,000/oz gold call to escalating geopolitical risks and rising sovereign fiscal debts.
Our Take
The $6.8 billion in silver futures selling tied to Comex index rebalancing is unusually large relative to our recent silver coverage, and is likely to amplify short-term volatility well beyond what underlying mine supply–demand fundamentals would justify for producers and developers.
In our database, most recent silver-tagged pieces have been framed against gold’s strength, and the same pattern appears here: gold’s record-high profile since 1979 means silver miners may face more erratic capital flows as generalist investors rotate between the two metals rather than allocate steadily to silver-specific stories.
Mercuria and Glencore both feature across recent copper and silver coverage, and their trading and financing roles (including Mercuria’s $1.2 billion lending for a Kazakh deal) suggest that large merchants’ positioning in futures and physical markets will be a key secondary driver of realised prices for silver-linked project economics into the first half of 2026.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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