Record gold price on US inflation data: cost and margin lens for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold hit a fresh record on Tuesday, with spot prices up 0.3% to $4,633.86/oz and US futures at $4,612.10/oz, after US CPI data came in below analyst expectations and strengthened bets on further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Safe-haven demand is being reinforced by political pressure on the Fed, including a US Department of Justice probe into Chair Jerome Powell and President Trump’s aggressive calls for lower rates, after gold gained nearly 70% in 2025. Citigroup now forecasts $5,000/oz within three months, signalling sustained cost pressure for gold consumers and potential margin support for producers.
Technical Brief
- Central bank buying and geopolitical risk are explicitly cited as sustaining factors for elevated bullion demand.
Our Take
With gold already up nearly 70% in 2025 in this piece and a separate item in our database noting a record $4,625/oz print, project developers with marginal economics at $1,800–2,000/oz are likely to see feasibility and financing assumptions rapidly re-rated without changing mine plans.
Citigroup’s three‑month $5,000/oz horizon, combined with the safe‑haven flows described in the 12 January gold and silver surge article, signals that US‑centric macro and Fed policy risk are now dominant drivers in our gold coverage, overshadowing traditional supply‑disruption narratives.
Across the 579 Mining stories and 189 gold‑tagged pieces in our database, very few involve such aggressive near‑term price forecasts, which suggests operators in the USA and elsewhere may hesitate to fully lock in long‑dated hedges at current levels, keeping more production exposed to spot volatility.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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