Goldman cuts gold price forecast to US$4,900: planning notes for mine projects
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Goldman Sachs has cut its end‑2026 gold price forecast by US$500/oz to US$4,900/oz after the US Federal Reserve, under new chair Kevin Warsh, signalled a hawkish shift that has pushed market-implied December rate hike odds to 87%. Spot gold has already fallen to about US$4,100/oz, down 27% from its near‑US$5,600/oz January peak, with three consecutive monthly losses between March and May and a 4% year‑to‑date decline. Goldman warns a 2026 year‑end target as low as US$4,400/oz is possible if rates rise, partly offset by ongoing central‑bank buying of roughly 50 tonnes/month this year and 40 tonnes/month next year.
Technical Brief
- Goldman’s previous end‑2026 target was US$5,400/oz, set when gold traded near US$5,000.
- That earlier target was maintained in late March despite weeks of sharp price declines.
- Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven now describe their stance as “structurally constructive but tactically cautious”.
- Fed rate cuts are now expected in June and December next year, later than prior projections.
- Earlier, rate reductions had been pencilled in for December 2026 and March 2027 instead.
- Traders’ implied probability of a December US rate hike jumped from 61% to 87% post‑meeting.
- Rob Kaplan warned the Fed might need to raise rates as early as September if inflation persists.
- Central‑bank gold purchases are projected at 50 tonnes/month this year and 40 tonnes/month next year, providing baseline demand.
Our Take
Goldman Sachs has been consistently cautious on gold across our recent coverage, with the 19 May piece noting Jeffrey Currie’s tactical short stance around $4,500/oz, so this further $500/oz forecast cut reinforces a bearish house view that contrasts with their bullish copper calls on 2 June.
The article’s assumption of continued official‑sector gold buying at 40–50 t/month to end‑2026 suggests that even structurally strong central‑bank demand is now being treated as insufficient to offset higher US rate expectations, which is a notable shift from earlier narratives in our gold‑tagged pieces that framed central banks as a primary price floor.
Russia’s 8% export duty on rough diamonds above 0.45 carats, mentioned alongside bullion, signals that Moscow is trying to extract more rent from non‑gold precious commodities; for miners with both gold and diamond exposure this could tilt relative project economics further towards gold despite the softer price outlook.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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