RAAC hospitals to miss rebuild targets: delivery, risk and cost lens for engineers
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on The Construction Index
30 Second Briefing
Replacements for seven hospitals predominantly built with reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete (RAAC) will not open until 2032-33, missing the independent 2030 deadline despite more than £500m already spent on structural mitigation. The reset New Hospital Programme now covers 41 schemes in four waves to 2045-46, with capital funding rising from about £2bn a year (2025-30) to £3bn a year thereafter and an estimated total cost of around £56–60bn, including a £12bn (21%) contingency. Trusts face £100m–£140m a year in extra maintenance on ageing estates, while the central programme is operating with a 39% vacancy rate across 357 posts, raising delivery and sequencing risks as “Hospital 2.0” standardised designs are rolled out.
Technical Brief
- More than £500m has already been spent on structural mitigation to prevent RAAC slab failure.
- An independent 2022 assessment required the seven mainly RAAC hospitals to be fully replaced by 2030.
- A December 2025 strategic planning report judged RAAC hospitals can operate beyond 2030 only with sustained mitigations.
- That report explicitly warned of ongoing operational and patient safety risks despite mitigation measures.
- Government estimates ageing estates will need an extra £100m–£140m per year in maintenance until replacements open.
- The reset New Hospital Programme now spans 41 schemes in four waves to 2045‑46, plus five already complete.
- NAO notes RAAC replacement schemes have “too tight” construction schedules and minimal contingency in the next five years.
Our Take
A projected £100–140m per year in extra maintenance on ageing NHS estates in England effectively diverts the equivalent of a mid-sized hospital capital scheme annually, which will squeeze other DHSC-backed infrastructure in our 465-piece Infrastructure set.
The £12bn contingency (21% of the roughly £60bn projection) signals that DHSC and the New Hospital Programme are now pricing in sustained construction inflation and engineering risk, which contractors in the 16-strong bidder pool will likely treat as headroom for complex phasing and temporary works rather than pure margin.
With a 39% vacancy rate across 357 NHP posts, delivery risk is now as much about public-sector client capacity as contractor appetite, and this mirrors several other UK public-infrastructure items in our database where programme slippage is tied to thin in-house teams rather than lack of private-sector bidders.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
Related Articles
Related Industries & Products
Construction
Quality control software for construction companies with material testing, batch tracking, and compliance management.
Mining
Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.
QCDB-io
Comprehensive quality control database for manufacturing, tunnelling, and civil construction with UCS testing, PSD analysis, and grout mix design management.