Ontario metals shift to defence: critical minerals strategy lens for engineers
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Ontario is shifting its critical minerals strategy away from a pure EV focus towards defence and aerospace, adding high-purity iron ore and aluminium to its critical minerals list, which now totals 35 commodities. Major EV-linked projects are being delayed or reprofiled, including Honda’s roughly $15‑billion EV and battery complex pushed back about two years, Ford’s $2‑billion Oakville plant reverting to Super Duty trucks, and GM suspending BrightDrop van output at the $1‑billion‑retooled CAMI plant. Toronto is also bidding to host a NATO‑backed international defence bank, with Ontario targeting a revised critical minerals strategy by 2027 after new consultations with industry and First Nations.
Technical Brief
- The Stellantis–LG Energy Solution NextStar battery plant in Windsor is a $5‑billion investment that was temporarily halted in 2023 amid subsidy and policy disputes.
- Volkswagen’s PowerCo battery plant in St. Thomas, costed between $7–14 billion, is scheduled to commence production in 2027.
- Ontario is aligning its minerals policy with a proposed NATO‑backed international defence bank to channel security-related capital into extractive projects.
- Lecce cited U.S. tariffs, supply chain disruptions and rising protectionism as key drivers for reweighting Ontario’s minerals strategy.
Our Take
Ontario’s move to classify high‑purity iron ore and aluminium as critical minerals aligns with a small subset of Policy pieces in our database where jurisdictions expand lists to capture defence and grid-hardening materials, not just battery metals, which tends to unlock bespoke permitting and infrastructure support for upstream projects.
The scale of committed auto and battery investments in Ontario – multiple projects in the C$1–15 billion range from Honda, Stellantis–LG Energy Solution, Volkswagen’s PowerCo, Ford and GM – positions the province near the top of our Policy coverage for EV‑linked manufacturing capex, which gives provincial regulators unusually strong leverage to tie critical mineral offtake to local processing conditions.
Referencing only 5% investment by NATO nations into defence‑related supply chains signals that Ontario’s copper, rare earths and broader critical minerals push is likely to be pitched as a security asset to U.S. and European buyers, which in our database has often translated into long‑dated offtake or co‑funded infrastructure rather than simple spot sales.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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