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    Nova Minerals short seller clash: Estelle mine risk and funding lens for engineers

    February 20, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Nova Minerals short seller clash: Estelle mine risk and funding lens for engineers

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Nova Minerals’ US-listed shares rose over 6% to $6.78 (market cap $255.3 million) even as short seller Spruce Point Capital Management disclosed a short position and warned of 45–60% downside to $2.50–$3.50 per ADR, or more than 100% under adverse scenarios such as loss of US Department of War funding. Spruce Point’s report questions Nova’s ability to deliver its proposed gold–antimony mine at the 500 km² Estelle project in Alaska’s Tintina belt, citing lack of infrastructure, community opposition, severe weather and concerns over the qualifications of its “competent” and “qualified” person. Nova plans a central mining and processing hub targeting first military-grade antimony output within two years, backed by a $43.4 million DoW award, and is preparing to redomicile to the US while consolidating the remaining 15% of Estelle.

    Technical Brief

    • Spruce Point’s short report focuses on attestations made to the SEC by Nova’s “competent” and “qualified” person.
    • Alleged discrepancies arise between those SEC attestations and background information from a private investigative group.
    • Harsh Alaskan weather and limited infrastructure flagged by Spruce Point imply elevated construction, logistics and winter safety risk.
    • Community pushback cited in the report signals potential for stricter permitting conditions and tighter environmental-safety oversight.

    Our Take

    With Estelle’s 500 km2 footprint in Alaska’s Tintina mineral belt and a planned two‑year path to first output, Nova Minerals is moving into the same ‘district-scale gold corridor’ narrative that underpins other growth plays in our database, such as Capricorn Metals’ recent push at Extension Hill and Mungada in Western Australia.

    The Department of War’s US$43.4 million funding tied to antimony and other critical minerals gives Estelle a strategic overlay that most gold-only projects in our 1085 Mining stories lack, which can influence permitting timelines and offtake leverage even if gold remains the primary value driver.

    American equity ownership now exceeding 50% in Nova Minerals, combined with a remaining 15% Estelle stake to be acquired from related parties, suggests future corporate actions (re-domiciling, US listing focus, or JV structuring) are likely to be oriented towards US capital markets rather than Australian ones.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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