Northern Ireland construction output surge: delivery risks and lessons for project teams
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on The Construction Index
30 Second Briefing
Construction output in Northern Ireland rose 7.3% in the year to June 2025, its highest level since 2010 and well ahead of the UK’s 2.2%, driven by repair and maintenance now 55.8% above pre-pandemic levels and a 25.9% rise in housing that made up over one-third of Q2 2025 activity. Major schemes include the £671m Belfast Children’s Hospital, with John Graham Construction holding a £389m main works contract, while private non-housing and infrastructure are forecast to grow 5.5% and 4.2% respectively in 2026. Aecom and CITB warn, however, that wastewater capacity constraints in Belfast, Newry and Derry-Londonderry, only one new social housing start against 49,000 households on waiting lists, and short-term public budgeting now pose the main delivery risks.
Technical Brief
- John Graham Construction holds a £389m main-works contract within the £671m Belfast Children’s Hospital scheme.
- Aecom calls for earlier supply-chain involvement and more collaborative delivery models to handle long-term capital programmes.
Our Take
Aecom’s presence in this Northern Ireland analysis mirrors its role in several UK-wide output pieces in our database, where ONS data show contraction in overall UK construction, underscoring how atypically strong the 7.3% Northern Ireland growth is versus the wider market backdrop.
With only one new social housing start recorded despite a 25.9% housing output increase and a 15‑year housing strategy horizon, the numbers suggest a pipeline skewed to private or non‑social schemes, which may create delivery pressure later in the strategy period if targets are back‑loaded.
The 5.5% labour cost increase tied to skills competition, combined with CITB’s forecast 4.2% infrastructure growth and 5.5% private non‑housing growth in 2026, signals that contractors like John Graham Construction will likely face sustained margin pressure unless productivity or procurement models are adjusted.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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