Latin America’s 75% share of mining M&A: project pipeline lens for engineers
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Global mining M&A reached about $30 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with 74% of deal value directed to Latin America and deal values in the region up more than 200% since 2021, while Africa’s have fallen nearly 80%. McKinsey and the Future Minerals Forum’s 2025 barometer reports that over 50% of global critical mineral reserves lie in Africa, West Asia and Central Asia, yet exploration spending there is the lowest worldwide and remains 40%–50% below required levels. The report estimates $5 trillion of cumulative investment is needed by 2035, with 16‑year discovery‑to‑production timelines and a projected 75% rise in copper demand to 56 Mt/y by 2050 requiring roughly 60 new Quellaveco‑scale mines.
Technical Brief
- More than 45% of refined EV-material output is concentrated in a single region, heightening supply-chain fragility.
- Mining productivity has risen only ~1% per year since 2018, constraining organic supply growth despite higher prices.
- Long permitting timelines, infrastructure gaps and high capital intensity are identified as primary bottlenecks to new mine delivery.
- The Future Minerals Barometer integrates stakeholder sentiment, market data and project-level evidence into a single decision-support platform.
- Africa, West Asia and Central Asia (“Super Region”) hold >50% of critical mineral reserves but attract the lowest global exploration spend.
- Anglo American’s Duncan Wanblad equates projected copper demand growth to developing ~60 Quellaveco-scale mines within a decade.
Our Take
Using Quellaveco as the reference scale for the 60 new copper mines implied in McKinsey’s outlook underlines how much of the future supply gap hinges on Peru- and Chile-style large open pits, which typically face long permitting and social-licence lead times in Latin America.
In our database of 601 Mining stories, copper consistently dominates the ‘Projects’ and ‘Sustainability’ tag overlap, suggesting that the projected 75% rise in copper demand by 2050 will likely keep pushing operators towards lower-grade, higher-strip deposits with more complex ESG footprints in Chile and Peru.
The combination of a 16‑year discovery‑to‑production timeline and exploration spend running 40–50% below requirements implies that many battery metals and critical minerals projects in the so‑called Super Region will need to rely on brownfield expansions and M&A rather than greenfield discoveries to meet 2030–2035 targets.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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