Kazatomprom 9% uranium output lift: ISR ramp-up and capex signals for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Kazatomprom plans to lift 2026 uranium output about 9% to 71.5–75.4 million lb. U3O8, driven mainly by ramp-up at the Budenovskoye in-situ recovery joint venture in southern Kazakhstan with its Russian partner, a range still about 5% below its state production cap but 6% above BMO’s forecast. The state-owned miner guides 2026 sales at 50.7–53.3 million lb., while spot uranium has surged to $99.25 per lb. from $63.50 at end-December, tightening margins for utilities and supporting new ISR wellfield development and brownfield expansion decisions.
Technical Brief
- Q4 2025 attributable output reached 9.6 million lb U3O8, up 10% quarter-on-quarter.
- That quarterly production volume exceeded BMO Capital Markets’ expectations by about 6%.
- Average realised Q4 price was $64.18/lb U3O8, 9% below BMO’s pricing estimate.
- Realised price carried roughly a 20% discount to the ~$80/lb average spot during the quarter.
- Spot uranium closed 2025 at $63.50/lb, about 5.5% higher than a year earlier.
- By 2 February 2026, spot had climbed further to $99.25/lb, a two‑year high.
- Sprott Physical Uranium Trust recently purchased 500,000 lb U3O8, its strongest first‑quarter buying in three years.
- Kazatomprom’s London‑listed shares fell ~4% to $78.60, implying a US$22.7 billion market capitalisation.
Our Take
Teniz Capital’s call for a “long-duration structural bull market” in uranium (29 Jan 2026) frames Kazatomprom’s 71.5–75.4M lb U3O8 output range as strategically important for utilities trying to close the forecast 10–26% primary supply gap without overpaying spot-linked premia.
The roughly 20% discount between Kazatomprom’s Q4 realised uranium price and the US$80/lb average spot suggests long-term and legacy contracts are still anchoring revenue, which may give nuclear utilities in Europe and Asia leverage to secure volume even as the spot price hovers near US$99.25/lb.
With a US$22.7 billion market capitalisation and 2026 sales guidance broadly aligned with BMO’s 52M lb forecast, Kazatomprom remains the benchmark low-cost producer in our uranium coverage, meaning its decision to keep output about 5% below state-granted levels will heavily influence how tight the market feels for Cameco, Orano and smaller ISR operators.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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