JPMorgan’s $6,300 gold call: price deck implications for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
JPMorgan has set a year-end gold price target of $6,300/oz despite last week’s 10% single-day plunge from a near-record $5,600/oz to about $4,600/oz, arguing that an “entrenched” preference for real over paper assets will keep bullion supported. Strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou see potential for $8,000/oz by 2030 if private investors increase allocations and central bank purchases return to around 800 tonnes in 2026. Silver is viewed as riskier, with prices having whipsawed from $120/oz to $70/oz in two days and JPMorgan now assuming a higher floor of $75–$80/oz.
Technical Brief
- Friday’s intraday move saw gold fall over 10% from nearly $5,600/oz to around $4,600/oz.
- Despite the sharp pullback, bullion remains approximately 12% higher year-to-date on JPMorgan’s figures.
- Central bank purchases are projected to return to about 800 tonnes in 2026 to support prices.
- Silver spiked to record levels near $120/oz before collapsing to $70/oz within two days.
- Analysts now assume a higher silver price floor of $75–$80/oz, implying elevated long-term volatility assumptions.
- Absence of central banks as structural “dip buyers” in silver is expected to widen the gold–silver ratio again.
Our Take
JPMorgan’s $6,300/oz year‑end gold call aligns with its later scenario work in our database that has gold at $8,000/oz by 2030, signalling a consistently bullish long‑run stance that project financiers and developers can use as a pricing deck counterpoint to more conservative banks.
With silver modelled to hold a $75–80/oz floor after a sharp correction from $120/oz, the implied volatility band is far wider than in most of the 305 gold‑ and silver‑linked pieces in our coverage, which likely complicates hedging strategies for polymetallic mines exposed to both metals.
The US Department of Defense’s $18 million support for 5N Plus’ germanium capabilities, alongside strong central bank gold buying projections, underscores how US and allied policy is bifurcating: gold as a monetary reserve asset and germanium as a defence‑critical metal, each pulling different parts of the project pipeline in the USA and Canada.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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