Goldman copper downside warning: pricing risk lens for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper’s early-2026 rally above $14,500/t has fully reversed, with prices now around $12,000/t and down 2.5% year-to-date after the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions pushed energy costs higher and clouded global growth. Goldman Sachs, led by analyst Aurelia Waltham, has cut its 2026 base-case copper target to $12,650/t from $12,850/t, versus an estimated “fair value” of about $11,100/t, and warns of a “severely adverse” downside scenario if the strait stays blocked. For project modellers and mine planners, the bank’s note signals weaker near-term demand assumptions and greater price risk around expansion and hedging decisions.
Technical Brief
- Copper has averaged roughly $12,850/t year-to-date, despite demand concerns from war-driven energy price spikes.
- Bloomberg Intelligence’s drawn-out-war scenario caps copper demand growth to ~0.5–1% and prices < $10,000/t.
- Iran conflict alone has knocked about 7% off copper, pulling prices towards the $12,000/t level.
- Goldman’s base case assumes partial Strait of Hormuz re-opening from mid-April, easing energy and macro headwinds.
- Analysts flag that current copper levels are “not being supported by fundamentals”, leaving prices vulnerable to de-risking flows.
- A “severely adverse” case is defined qualitatively, with further downside if strait flows stay blocked and growth weakens.
Our Take
Goldman Sachs has featured heavily across recent precious metals coverage in our database, often on the bullish side for gold, so a more cautious stance on copper signals a deliberate differentiation between base and precious metals outlooks rather than a broad risk-off call on commodities.
With Cobre Panama in Panama already shuttered since 2023, any further demand cap of 0.5–1% from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East suggests higher-cost copper projects in the USA and elsewhere may struggle to secure financing unless they can demonstrate clear cost or ESG advantages.
First Quantum’s exposure to the Cobre Panama mine means that downside scenarios for copper prices into mid-April 2026 could further complicate any restart or replacement strategy, as lenders and equity markets have become more sensitive to single-asset political and price risk in our recent copper project coverage.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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