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    Gold price rally has legs: planning implications for mine project teams

    February 18, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Gold price rally has legs: planning implications for mine project teams

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Gold’s 2025–26 bull run is being sustained by central bank purchases of 328 tonnes in December 2025, record inflows of $19 billion into physical gold ETFs in January, and mounting concerns over US “dollar debasement” and sovereign debt, according to Scotiabank and Jefferies. Spot gold, now about $4,856/oz after a 2.7% drop Tuesday, is still up roughly 13% year‑to‑date following a more than 60% surge last year, with ETF holdings hitting 4,145 tonnes and $669 billion AUM. Jefferies also flags Tether’s 148‑tonne physical position as a non‑sovereign demand driver, adding 32 tonnes since Q4 2025.

    Technical Brief

    • Central banks collectively hold under 30% of global above‑ground bullion, per Scotiabank estimates.
    • December 2025 official‑sector purchases of 328 tonnes were slightly below the 345 tonnes a year earlier.
    • January’s 14% monthly gold price increase, combined with ETF inflows, lifted ETF AUM by 20%.
    • Analysts explicitly link post‑Covid fiscal deficits and escalating US federal debt to “dollar debasement” concerns.
    • Seizure of Russian assets, resource nationalism and US tariff policy are cited as structural drivers of hard‑asset demand.

    Our Take

    With gold up 49% from July to end-January and ETFs adding 120 tonnes in a single month, producers like Agnico Eagle Mines, which just reported record reserves in our coverage, are positioned to lock in higher-price hedges or accelerate marginal project approvals.

    Tether’s 148-tonne physical position and status among the top 30 gold holders signals that non-traditional financial players are now material demand-side actors, which can complicate price modelling for US- and Russia-linked macro risk scenarios referenced in the article.

    Our database shows many recent gold-project pieces (such as Hecla Mining’s expanded exploration spend) being justified on conservative price decks; if Scotiabank’s view on the rally having legs proves correct, internal hurdle rates for new gold and polymetallic projects may be revised upward without changing geological assumptions.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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