Glencore copper output drops 11%: portfolio and M&A implications for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Glencore’s 2025 copper production fell 11% to 851,600 tonnes, at the low end of guidance, as weaker grades and operational constraints hit assets including its 44%‑owned Collahuasi mine in Chile, where 2026 output is further capped by water limits and guidance has been cut to 810,000–870,000 tonnes from a previous 930,000‑tonne forecast. Quarter‑on‑quarter copper output rose 12% to 268,000 tonnes in Q4, while metallurgical coal missed BMO’s target by 6% and thermal coal exceeded it by 7%. Market focus now centres on a potential all‑share Rio Tinto takeover bid by 5 February, aimed largely at securing Glencore’s copper portfolio.
Technical Brief
- 2026 copper guidance reduction is driven by lower grades and water constraints at Collahuasi in Chile.
- Previous 2026 copper forecast of 930,000 tonnes has been cut, with a lower midpoint now assumed.
- Cobalt production guidance has been withdrawn entirely due to uncertainty over DRC export quota allocations.
- Metallurgical coal volumes underperformed BMO expectations by 6%, while thermal coal exceeded forecasts by 7%.
- Rio Tinto’s potential all‑share bid, expected by 5 February, would create a miner worth >$200 billion.
Our Take
Our recent coverage of Rio Tinto’s 5% Q4 2025 copper output rise, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi underground ramp‑up, highlights a contrasting production trajectory to Glencore’s 11% 2025 copper decline, which could strengthen Rio’s narrative that a combined group would be a copper‑growth rather than a coal‑income story.
With diversified miners’ copper Ebitda share projected to exceed 35% by 2026 versus about 21% eight years ago, Glencore’s 1.6 Mt copper target by 2035 positions it competitively against peers like BHP and Rio Tinto that are also leaning on copper to drive earnings in the copper‑price rally noted in our 28 January piece.
The earlier report on a potential ASX‑listed spin‑off of Glencore’s coal assets suggests that any Rio Tinto all‑share deal creating a >$200 billion miner would likely be structured to ring‑fence thermal and metallurgical coal exposure, easing ESG and index‑inclusion constraints for investors focused on copper, nickel and cobalt growth.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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