Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Streamlined.

© 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    AllGeotechnicalMiningInfrastructureMaterialsHazardsEnvironmentalSoftwarePolicy
    Projects
    Sustainability

    Geopolitics rewiring metals markets: key risk and supply notes for mine planners

    March 11, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Geopolitics rewiring metals markets: key risk and supply notes for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Resource nationalism and security stockpiles are reshaping metals markets, with Indonesia capping 2025 nickel ore output at about 200 million tonnes and the US launching Project Vault, a US$12 billion critical minerals stockpiling programme, while Canada commits C$2.5 billion under a Defence Production Act-style framework. China still refines roughly 60% of global lithium and cobalt and produces about 69% of rare earths and 83% of tungsten, pushing buyers to prioritise NATO alignment, energy reliability and governance over pure cost. Canada’s advantage in stability, tax incentives such as the Mineral Exploration Tax Credit (to March 2027) and deep mining finance is narrowing unless operators accelerate electrification, automation and digital operations.

    Technical Brief

    • Indonesia’s 2025 nickel ore quota of ~200 Mt is explicitly contingent on meeting environmental performance benchmarks.
    • Jakarta’s quota mechanism centralises supply discipline in government hands, directly constraining mine scheduling and expansion plans.
    • DRC cobalt output is projected at 100,000–120,000 t in 2025, concentrated in one volatile jurisdiction.
    • China controls ~90% of global critical mineral refining/processing, spanning at least 15 named critical commodities.
    • Rare earths: China supplies ~69.2% of global production; tungsten: ~82.7% of global output.
    • Lithium and cobalt processing is similarly concentrated, with China handling ~60% of global refined volumes.
    • Defence Production Act-style stockpiling in Canada revives 1950s-era national security procurement tools for minerals.
    • Project design assumptions now explicitly weight NATO alignment, regulatory predictability and energy reliability alongside orebody quality.

    Our Take

    The US$12 billion Project Vault stockpiling plan and Canada’s proposed C$2.5 billion defence-style stockpile effectively create a floor market for critical minerals like cobalt, lithium and rare earths, which can underpin financing for marginal projects in North America that might otherwise struggle at current prices.

    Indonesia’s roughly 200 Mt 2025 nickel ore mining quota, combined with China’s dominant role in lithium and cobalt processing, signals that non-Chinese battery-metal projects in Canada, Australia and Africa will increasingly need to differentiate on ESG performance and security-of-supply rather than cost alone to secure offtake.

    The drop in Canada’s share of global mining finance from about 80% in 2010 to around 40% by 2025 suggests that, despite Ottawa’s critical minerals push, more project capital for copper, nickel and rare earths is now being raised in other hubs such as Australia and the US, which can dilute Toronto’s traditional influence over project standards and deal structures.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    Mining
    about 3 hours ago

    Rio Tinto Rincon lithium financing: delivery and infrastructure lens for engineers

    Rio Tinto has secured a US$1.175 billion financing package from four international lenders to advance construction of its Rincon lithium brine project in Argentina’s Salta Province. The package combines loans from the International Finance Corporation, IDB Invest, Export Finance Australia and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, signalling strong multilateral backing for large-scale lithium chemicals capacity. For project engineers and contractors, the funding de-risks early works, evaporation pond construction and processing plant delivery, and locks in capital for associated power, water and access infrastructure in the high-altitude Puna.

    Mining
    about 4 hours ago

    Nordec’s Viscaria copper plant contract: civil–process integration notes for engineers

    Nordec has agreed with Gruvaktiebolaget Viscaria to deliver the full processing plant structure for the restarted Viscaria copper mine in Kiruna, Sweden, covering groundworks, foundations, structural steel and concrete framing, and the building envelope. The contract places Nordec in charge of integrating civil works with the process plant layout, a critical interface for heavy equipment loads, vibration control and serviceability in Arctic conditions. For engineers, early coordination of foundations and steelwork with crusher, mill and materials-handling loads will be central to programme and cost control.

    Chile mining under Kast: policy, permitting and project risks for engineers
    Mining
    about 4 hours ago

    Chile mining under Kast: policy, permitting and project risks for engineers

    Chile’s new president José Antonio Kast has merged the Mining and Economy ministries under agronomist Daniel Mas, prompting concern from industry groups that a sector generating 11–12% of GDP is losing technical focus just as projects face “cursed” permitting processes requiring 500+ approvals. Copper output fell 2% in 2025 and Cochilco now sees production peaking mid-decade before sliding towards about 4.4 Mt by 2034 unless stalled projects advance. At the same time, Chile is pushing a 14‑mineral critical strategy and new lithium JVs such as Codelco–SQM’s Nova Andino Litio and Codelco–Rio Tinto at Maricunga amid tighter state control and volatile copper prices around $13,098/t.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.