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    Fitch Solutions’ BMI metals forecast upgrade: pricing signals for mine planners

    February 4, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Fitch Solutions’ BMI metals forecast upgrade: pricing signals for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Fitch Solutions’ BMI has lifted industrial metals price forecasts after a late‑2025 rally and subsequent crash, citing tight physical markets, bullish speculative positioning and macro bets on a weaker dollar. Copper is now forecast to average US$11,900/t in 2026 after briefly touching US$14,500/t on the LME, aluminium US$2,900/t at its highest levels since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and tin US$45,000/t amid Indonesian permitting issues and Myanmar supply constraints. Nickel is projected at US$15,800/t and lithium carbonates/hydroxides at US$13,500/t and US$13,000/t, with BMI expecting a corrective phase rather than another sustained rally.

    Technical Brief

    • BMI attributes the late‑2025 surge mainly to “bullish speculative trades” layered on tight physical supply.
    • Analysts explicitly link price action to macro bets on a weakening US dollar.
    • A “historic metals crash” in the prior week is referenced as evidence the rally was unsustainable.
    • BMI expects base metals to consolidate above historical averages while entering a corrective phase.
    • Copper is expected to remain elevated at least until mid‑2026 before any major normalisation.
    • Tin’s revised outlook factors in Indonesian permitting delays and ongoing supply constraints from Myanmar.
    • Nickel and lithium upgrades are tied directly to demand from the clean‑energy transition rather than short‑term speculation.

    Our Take

    BMI and Fitch Solutions also feature in our recent coverage of Venezuela’s aluminium chain restart, signalling that their upgraded aluminium and copper views are already being used as reference cases for high‑capex restart decisions.

    With aluminium and copper among the most frequently tagged commodities in our mining database, an upgraded mid‑2026 price deck from BMI is likely to feed directly into project hurdle rates and financing models for new capacity in China, the USA and Europe.

    The inclusion of platinum, silver and diamonds alongside base metals in BMI’s outlook suggests downstream brands such as Pandora will be watching not just silver input costs but also relative pricing across precious and industrial metals when planning product and sourcing strategies into 2026.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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