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    First Quantum outlook improves: Cobre Panama restart economics for mine planners

    February 11, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    First Quantum outlook improves: Cobre Panama restart economics for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    S&P Global Ratings has shifted First Quantum Minerals’ outlook to positive from negative on expectations that the idled Cobre Panama mine will restart in the first half of 2026, with ramp-up beginning soon after and potential 2026 output of about 120,000 tonnes of copper and 40,000 oz. of gold. The agency cites steps such as selling inventory, exporting concentrate, restarting the site power plant in Q4 2025, and advancing an independent audit, alongside Panama’s signals that it may allow processing of low-grade stockpiles. S&P models copper at $10,500/t and estimates that once Cobre Panama reaches full production, EBITDA could exceed $5 billion annually, driving adjusted debt-to-EBITDA below 2.0x if liquidity stays above $1 billion.

    Technical Brief

    • Hedging covers roughly 50% of H1 2026 copper and gold output via collar structures.
    • S&P estimates each US$500/t copper price uplift adds about US$200 million to 2026 adjusted EBITDA.
    • Those collars could trim about US$100 million of 2026 adjusted EBITDA if prices stay near forecasts.
    • Restart-readiness measures include selling idled inventory, exporting concentrate and restarting the on-site power plant in Q4 2025.
    • An independent audit of Cobre Panama is being advanced as part of the restart preconditions and negotiations.

    Our Take

    The implied US$5 billion-per-year EBITDA potential at Cobre Panama would place First Quantum among the higher cash-generating copper producers in our Mining database, which in turn could ease funding pressure on its Zambian operations once the Panama asset is back at full run-rate.

    S&P’s focus on keeping adjusted debt-to-EBITDA below 3x, with a path under 2x after US$1 billion in excess cash, signals that any major new capex at assets like Black Pine in the western US will likely be sequenced behind the Cobre Panama restart rather than run in parallel at full scale.

    The large, low-grade Black Pine gold inventory (4.8 Moz at 0.3 g/t) gives First Quantum optionality in a different commodity and jurisdiction mix (United States vs Panama/Zambia), which could become more strategically important if copper price scenarios used in the S&P sensitivity analysis do not materialise.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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