DRC critical minerals strategy: price-setting and supply risks for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Democratic Republic of Congo has shifted from price-taker to price-setter in cobalt by imposing ARECOMS-managed export quotas and planning state stockpiles of cobalt, coltan and germanium. Cobalt prices have climbed from about $21,000/t in early 2025 to just over $56,000/t, with Kinshasa forecasting $2.3 billion in fiscal revenues this year versus an estimated $617 million without intervention. Advisory input from Vectus Global and new investment moves such as Virtus Minerals’ acquisition of Chemaf signal tighter supply discipline and a push for higher value-added partnerships.
Technical Brief
- ARECOMS’ quota regime followed a temporary cobalt export ban explicitly targeting post‑2022 oversupply conditions.
- The DRC currently supplies roughly 80% of global mined cobalt, centralising supply‑side leverage in Kinshasa.
- Cobalt prices previously fell from nearly $95,000/t in 2018 to $21,000/t before restrictions.
- Export controls and revenue-collection systems were designed with advisory input from Vectus Global, linked to Erik Prince.
- Strategic reserves will be built via state buybacks of cobalt, coltan and germanium from operating miners’ stocks.
- Stockpiled metals target downstream sectors including semiconductors, fibre optics, infrared systems and defence technologies.
- China’s prior decade-long cobalt stockpiling is cited as a reference model for DRC’s reserve strategy.
- Virtus Minerals’ acquisition of Chemaf illustrates Kinshasa’s preference for long-term, value-chain–aligned investment partners.
Our Take
Glencore and CMOC’s presence in the DRC cobalt space means any sustained quota regime or Project Vault‑style coordination will likely feed directly into their global cost curves and contract structures, especially for European and US battery clients seeking non‑Chinese controlled supply.
In our database of 152 keyword‑matched critical minerals and cobalt stories, the DRC is one of the few jurisdictions using explicit volume management rather than just fiscal terms, signalling to operators that political risk here now includes active price‑cycle management as well as tax and licence uncertainty.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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