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    Copper price 2025 surge: supply shocks and project signals for mine planners

    December 24, 2025|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Copper price 2025 surge: supply shocks and project signals for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper prices set fresh records above $12,000/t in London and $5.60/lb in Chicago in 2025, amid outages at Grasberg, El Teniente, Kamoa-Kakula, Quebrada Blanca II and Cobre Panamá, and mounting geopolitical friction over US tariffs and Chinese processing dominance (53.1% of global capacity). Analysts are split, with Goldman Sachs seeing a 160 kt surplus capping 2026 prices at $10,000–$11,000/t, while Bank of America and BloombergNEF project spikes to $15,000/t and a 19 Mt structural deficit by 2050. Technically significant stories include Freeport’s 400 kt sulfide leach push at Morenci, the stalled deep-shaft Resolution Copper project in Arizona, and the proposed $53 billion Anglo–Teck merger that could create a copper complex larger than Escondida’s 1.28 Mt/y output.

    Technical Brief

    • Escondida in Chile produced 1.28 Mt copper in 2024, topping the global mine ranking.
    • That BHP–Rio Tinto operation also achieved the largest percentage output increase among the top 10 mines.
    • Follow‑up ranking in October 2025 expanded coverage to the 20 largest operations by H1 output.
    • Morenci in Arizona retains ~10 Mt copper in historic waste piles after 154 years of mining.
    • Freeport‑McMoRan’s sulfide leach project at Morenci targets recovery of 400 kt copper by 2030.
    • BHP and Rio Tinto are separately piloting comparable chalcopyrite leaching technologies for low‑grade sulphide ores.
    • Resolution Copper has already consumed >$2 billion and sunk one of the deepest US shafts.
    • Glencore’s Horne Smelter and Canadian Copper Refinery together account for ~300 kt/y refined capacity and >1,000 jobs.
    • Environmental upgrades at Horne are estimated above $200 million, driven partly by arsenic emission controls.

    Our Take

    The 19‑million‑tonne structural copper shortfall by 2050 cited here aligns with the separate BloombergNEF deficit analysis in our database, underscoring why long‑life assets like Escondida, Grasberg and Kamoa‑Kakula dominate 2024–25 project coverage despite near‑term surplus forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.

    Glencore’s potential closure of the Horne Smelter and Canadian Copper Refinery, affecting about 300 kt of annual output, sits awkwardly against Chile’s $14.8‑billion pipeline of copper projects (including Collahuasi) in another 2025 piece, highlighting how smelting/refining bottlenecks may increasingly constrain concentrate‑heavy growth regions.

    The Resolution Copper JV’s roughly $2‑billion sunk investment over two decades contrasts with Anglo American’s relatively recent 2022 JV entry in Zambia with Arc Minerals (now unwound), suggesting that very large US copper projects are being pursued on much longer, more politically exposed timelines than many African exploration‑stage JVs in our coverage.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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