Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Streamlined.

© 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    Projects

    Copper outlook strengthens: long-term price assumptions and project impacts for mine planners

    April 13, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Copper outlook strengthens: long-term price assumptions and project impacts for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper price assumptions used in mining studies have climbed about 60% since 2020, with Plusmining’s review of 300+ reports showing base-case long-term prices rising from roughly US$3.00/lb in 2015–2020 to around US$4.80/lb by early 2026, still below spot levels above US$6.00/lb on the LME. Plusmining’s Andrés González notes assumptions remain tied to trailing averages rather than short-term spikes, as EVs, grid expansion and data centres reshape demand and declining grades and 17-year discovery-to-production lead times constrain supply. The stronger outlook is reviving previously uneconomic projects and driving portfolio reshaping, consolidation and renewed capital into copper resources.

    Technical Brief

    • Real (inflation-adjusted) long-term copper assumptions sit ~28% above 2020 levels, indicating a structural repricing, not just nominal drift.
    • Average discovery‑to‑production lead time of 17 years means projects sanctioned now mainly affect post‑2040 supply balance.
    • Elevated assumptions are re‑ranking previously marginal copper assets, pulling “uneconomic” projects back into owners’ development pipelines and option studies.
    • Portfolio reshaping includes merger attempts and asset combinations aimed at scale and integration synergies in copper‑focused producers.

    Our Take

    Codelco’s prominence in recent coverage—from electric haulage pilots to the Andina–Los Bronces joint mining plan—suggests that major incumbents are already repositioning large brownfield assets like El Teniente and Chuquicamata to capture the tighter copper market implied by a 17‑year discovery-to-production lag.

    The contrast between firmer copper assumptions and relatively modest 2026 lithium carbonate expectations from SQM in Chile-focused pieces signals that diversified producers exposed to both copper and lithium may prioritise copper-heavy project pipelines before the 2040s, particularly in Latin America and Western Canada where most project studies in our database are clustered.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    Graphite One Alaska–Ohio supply chain: design and capex notes for mine planners
    Mining
    about 2 hours ago

    Graphite One Alaska–Ohio supply chain: design and capex notes for mine planners

    Graphite One has secured a Conneaut, Ohio site from Bessemer and Lake Erie Railroad (CN subsidiary) for its Active Anode Materials facility, gaining direct Lake Erie port access, multi-line CN rail, an on-site substation and room to scale. The staged build-out targets an initial 25,000‑tonne module, ultimately 100,000 tonnes per year of anode material, supplied by the post‑feasibility Graphite Creek deposit in Alaska with a planned 20‑year mine life and backed by up to US$2 billion in potential EXIM funding. A separate Ohio finishing and blending plant aims for Q4 2027 completion with 10,000 t/y initial capacity, split into 4,000 t energy storage, 3,000 t fast‑charging and 3,000 t high‑energy‑density graphite products for lithium‑ion batteries.

    Jeff Currie’s $10,000 gold call: cycle, capex and price risks for mine planners
    Mining
    about 9 hours ago

    Jeff Currie’s $10,000 gold call: cycle, capex and price risks for mine planners

    Gold may retreat from about $4,500/oz. towards $4,000/oz. as Jeffrey Currie, former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and now Abaxx Markets executive co-chairman, stays tactically short, citing forced central bank sales such as Turkey’s roughly 120 tonnes of disposals to fund higher energy costs. Currie still targets a long-term move towards $10,000/oz., arguing that once central banks turn dovish after an energy-driven growth shock, the trade “resets”. He links this to a broader commodity super cycle driven by capex starvation and an estimated $820 billion of 2026 spending by the “Magnificent 7 plus Oracle”.

    Nouveau Monde Graphite Matawinie mine: project and supply-chain notes for engineers
    Mining
    about 9 hours ago

    Nouveau Monde Graphite Matawinie mine: project and supply-chain notes for engineers

    Construction has begun on Nouveau Monde Graphite’s C$2 billion Matawinie mine in Québec, fast-tracked through Canada’s Major Projects Office and designed to produce up to 106,000 tonnes of graphite per year, which would make it the largest graphite mine in the G7. Ottawa has backed the project with financing from Export Development Canada, the Canada Infrastructure Bank and the Canada Growth Fund, plus a seven-year offtake for 30,000 tonnes of concentrate annually. The mine, 120 km north of Montreal, is expected to create over 1,000 jobs and anchor an integrated graphite-to-battery materials chain with NMG’s planned Bécancour plant.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.

    AllGeotechnicalInfrastructureHazardsEnvironmental