Centaurus–Glencore Jaguar nickel offtake: project economics for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Centaurus Metals has secured a binding five-year offtake with Glencore for 20,000 tonnes per year of 32% nickel concentrate from the Jaguar project in Brazil, worth about $450 million and feeding Glencore’s Sudbury smelter with roughly 6,400 tonnes of nickel annually. Jaguar is designed as a 3.5‑million‑tonne‑per‑year operation, targeting 22,600 tonnes per year of contained nickel at all‑in sustaining costs of $9,764 per tonne, with capex of $380 million and a post‑tax NPV of $735 million at $19,800/t nickel. Centaurus aims for FID by September and first production in early 2029, with Brazilian development bank debt under discussion amid a tightening sulphide concentrate market.
Technical Brief
- Offtake covers 20,000 t/y of 32% Ni concentrate, about one‑third of Jaguar’s output.
- Contained nickel sold to Glencore totals ~6,400 t/y, destined for the Sudbury smelter in Canada.
- Sales pricing is indexed to LME nickel, with explicit copper and cobalt by-product payment terms.
- Project economics assume a long‑term nickel price of $19,800/t, above today’s ~$17,200/t LME level.
- Jaguar’s post‑tax IRR is quoted at 34%, with $380m capex payback in ~1.8 years.
- Centaurus entered 2026 with ~A$25m cash after A$23m equity raised in H2 2025.
- Macquarie forecasts a shift of high‑grade sulphide concentrate from oversupply toward balance, with an LME floor of $17,000–18,000/t.
Our Take
With a post-tax NPV of US$735 million against capex of US$380 million, Jaguar’s economics sit at the higher-return end of nickel projects in our mining database, which should make the Glencore offtake bankable support when Centaurus approaches lenders such as Macquarie or Brazil’s National Development Bank.
The 32% nickel sulphide concentrate grade and 3.5 Mt/y throughput imply a relatively clean, high-grade feed that is well suited to established smelters such as Glencore’s Sudbury facility in Canada, reducing technical risk compared with laterite or lower-grade concentrate projects also covered in our nickel and copper corpus.
Glencore features across several recent critical minerals and nickel pieces in our coverage, and its role here reinforces how trading houses are locking in sulphide supply from jurisdictions like Brazil just as policy debates in the EU and North America (see the 24 Feb critical minerals legislation article) focus on upstream security of supply.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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