BMI copper price upgrade: project economics and cut-off stress tests for 2035
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
BMI now projects widening structural copper deficits reaching nearly 1.5 million tonnes annually by 2035, pushing prices to $17,000/t, with its upgraded 2026 outlook still below market consensus but turning more bullish than most banks from 2028. The Fitch unit’s long-range view implies sustained pressure on new sulphide project approvals, brownfield expansions and higher-grade resource discovery to offset declining head grades and ageing pits. Mine planners and project financiers may need to stress-test cut-off grades, capex and permitting timelines against a markedly higher long-term price deck.
Technical Brief
- Forecasts still assume a pullback from current spot levels before prices re-accelerate late decade.
- The model assumes limited restart probability for idled or suspended projects under current regulatory conditions.
- On the demand side, BMI flags grid expansion and EV infrastructure as the dominant incremental copper sinks.
- Long-range price deck implies higher NPV sensitivity to schedule slippage and ramp-up delays for new sulphide mines.
Our Take
BMI and Fitch Solutions have been at the centre of several recent base‑metals outlook pieces in our database, signalling that this copper call is part of a broader, house‑view tightening narrative that also covers aluminium, nickel and tin rather than a one‑off bullish outlier.
A 1.5 Mt annual copper deficit by 2035, if realised, would exceed the current combined output of multiple mid‑tier producers, implying that greenfield and brownfield projects in our copper coverage will be competing in a structurally undersupplied market rather than just cycling typical price volatility.
Compared with other copper‑tagged items in our coverage that focus on short‑term macro swings and LME sentiment, this BMI forecast pushes attention back onto long‑lead project pipelines and permitting timelines, which are now critical constraints if miners want to be online before the post‑2028 price environment BMI is flagging.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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