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    BHP Jansen Stage 1 at US$8.4bn: capex and schedule lens for mine planners

    January 19, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    First reported on International Mining – News

    30 Second Briefing

    BHP has lifted the total investment estimate for Stage 1 of its Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan to US$8.4 billion, including contingencies, after completing a detailed review of cost and schedule. First production has reverted to the original 2026 timetable, reversing earlier expectations of an accelerated start-up. The update signals higher upfront capital intensity for the underground potash mine and associated processing plant, with implications for contractor demand, shaft and hoisting infrastructure, and long-lead materials procurement in the Canadian prairies.

    Technical Brief

    • Project economics will be sensitive to potash price decks, given higher upfront capital intensity per installed tonne.
    • Higher capex at Stage 1 may influence design optimisation and phasing decisions for subsequent Jansen stages.

    Our Take

    Within our 671 Mining stories, BHP features predominantly in iron ore and base metals, so a large Canadian potash build like Jansen signals further diversification away from its traditional Australian iron ore core.

    Saskatchewan potash adds a stable, fertiliser-linked revenue stream for BHP at a time when related coverage shows it also pursuing large-scale iron ore collaboration with Rio Tinto in Western Australia, reducing reliance on any single commodity cycle.

    Potash pieces are relatively sparse in our database compared with copper or iron ore, which suggests Jansen could quickly become one of the benchmark reference projects for cost, scale and contracting models in the fertiliser space once Stage 1 is online.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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