Arafura’s Nolans ore-to-oxide rare earths mine: capex and design notes for engineers
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Arafura Rare Earths is targeting a September construction start on its A$1.23 billion Nolans project, 1,140 km southeast of Darwin, to create Australia’s first fully integrated ore-to-oxide rare earths mine and refinery producing 4,440 tonnes per year of NdPr oxide over a 38-year life. The project, now backed by A$887 million in equity and about $1.01 billion in debt, includes an on-site oxide processing plant accounting for 90% of capex and aims to produce 144,000 tonnes per year of high-purity phosphoric acid byproduct. Offtake deals already cover up to 3,820 tonnes per year of NdPr oxide with Hyundai, Kia, Siemens Gamesa, Traxys and Australia’s Critical Mineral Strategic Reserve, with contracts indexed to non-Chinese rare earth price benchmarks.
Technical Brief
- Updated July 2024 economics indicate a post-tax NPV of $1.73 billion and 17.2% IRR.
- Equity funding includes A$430 million in binding commitments from the German Raw Materials Fund, Export Finance Australia and the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation.
- Hancock Prospecting holds 17.5% of Arafura and contributed A$210 million across the 2025 and 2026 equity raisings.
- Nolans has been granted Significant Project status, enabling a Territory Coordinator to streamline secondary construction and expansion approvals.
- Arafura is already recommissioning the onsite camp, water lines and access roads ahead of main construction mobilisation.
- Offtake portfolio includes 1,500 t/y NdPr oxide to Hyundai and Kia, 520 t/y to Siemens Gamesa, plus 800 t/y combined to Traxys Europe and North America.
- Contracts with CMSR and Traxys North America are indexed to non-Chinese rare earth price benchmarks without price floors.
- Phosphoric acid by-product is higher purity than standard fertiliser-grade, underpinning first-quartile operating cost positioning despite not meeting LFP battery specifications.
Our Take
With Nolans targeting about 4% of global NdPr output, our database suggests it will sit in the same volume bracket as MP Materials’ Mountain Pass and Lynas’ Mount Weld, effectively creating a third major non‑Chinese pillar for magnet feedstock alongside those two assets.
The roughly US$1 billion debt package backed by nine lenders, alongside Australian public financiers like Export Finance Australia and the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation, signals that NdPr is now being treated by lenders more like LNG or iron ore ‘strategic infrastructure’ than a niche specialty chemical.
The Northern Territory’s designation of Nolans as a “Significant Project” in a 1 June 2026 related item suggests permitting and infrastructure approvals for the three‑year pre‑production window will be actively shepherded, which is material given that about 90% of total cost sits in the complex oxide processing plant rather than the mine itself.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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