Alamos Gold 1 Moz by 2030: project pipeline, costs and capex for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Alamos Gold plans to lift annual production to 1 million oz. by 2030, driven by a $542 million expansion of the Island Gold District in Ontario to a 20,000‑tonne‑per‑day mill and the Lynn Lake open‑pit project in Manitoba. A new study increases Island Gold reserves by 30% to 8.3 million oz., targeting 419,000 oz. per year over a 19‑year mine life, while Lynn Lake is expected to average 186,000 oz. annually over its first decade from 2029. Company guidance projects total cash costs falling from $1,020–1,120/oz. in 2026 to $775–875/oz. by 2028, with AISC dropping to $1,200–1,300/oz.
Technical Brief
- Island Gold’s updated study assigns an $8.2 billion NPV at a long‑term $3,200/oz gold price.
- Company-wide 2026 production guidance is framed as a “reset” after weaker 2025 operational performance.
- Market capitalisation reached about C$23 billion after a 4.7% share price rise to C$54.67.
Our Take
With Island Gold’s net present value of US$8.2 billion and a 19‑year mine life in Ontario, Alamos Gold now sits in the same ‘tier‑one district’ bucket as the largest Canadian gold stories in our database, which typically underpins lower-cost refinancing and streaming options if needed later in the build‑out.
Forecast total cash costs of US$775–875/oz by 2028 place Alamos toward the lower half of the cost curve among the gold producers in our recent coverage, which suggests the company can better absorb gold price volatility while still funding Lynn Lake’s C$380–410 million peak capex in Manitoba.
The C$850–940 million capital programme for 2026, with up to C$720 million earmarked for growth projects, is one of the more aggressive organic build cycles among the 887 Mining stories in our database, signalling that Alamos is prioritising internal project pipeline (Island Gold and Lynn Lake) over M&A-led reserve replacement for this decade.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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