Copper surged to a new all‑time high on the LME, with three‑month futures jumping 2.1% intraday to $11,800.50/t, surpassing Monday’s record as macro sentiment turned sharply more positive. The US Federal Reserve lifted its 2026 growth forecast to 2.3% from 1.8% and delivered a widely expected rate cut while signalling inflation easing to 2.4%, boosting demand expectations for industrial metals, while China’s commitment to a “proactive” fiscal stance and ongoing supply concerns have driven a year‑to‑date copper gain of nearly 35%.

Rare earth elements have moved to the centre of trade negotiations as governments respond to China’s control of almost 90% of refined supply and most high-performance magnet output, Wood Mackenzie’s 2025 mega-trends report shows. Washington has led with a G7 action plan, an April 2024 critical minerals memorandum with Norway, an Oct. 27 mining and processing framework with Japan, and parallel rare earth agreements with Malaysia and Australia. Project-level responses include Arafura’s Nolans project targeting about 4% of global supply, Serra Verde’s US$465 million US development loan, and SRC–ReAlloys and Cyclic–Solvay offtakes linking new and recycled oxides into Western magnet supply chains.

Chile’s 14 December presidential runoff will decide how Jeannette Jara’s plan for a 10% increase in mining output, expanded state role in lithium and higher renewable penetration competes with José Antonio Kast’s $6 billion public spending cuts and lean-state agenda. Codelco, carrying more than $20 billion in debt after output fell to a 25‑year low in 2022 and still required to remit 70% of profits plus 10% of sales to the state, faces constrained reinvestment. Any policy misstep risks undermining Chile’s $105 billion mining investment pipeline to 2034 and global copper and lithium supply.