US structure losses from wildfires by 2060: design and planning notes for engineers
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on New Civil Engineer
30 Second Briefing
Wildfires could damage or destroy between 133,000 and 449,000 structures across the US from 2024 to 2060 if current development patterns and limited adaptation persist, according to a new peer‑reviewed risk assessment. The projected losses nearly triple current estimates, driven by continued expansion of housing into the wildland–urban interface and inadequate fire‑resilient design. For civil and geotechnical engineers, this signals rising demand for fire‑hardening of infrastructure, updated land‑use planning, and performance‑based codes for foundations, retaining systems and utilities in high‑risk corridors.
Technical Brief
- Peer-reviewed assessment quantifies US wildfire-driven structure losses over 2024–2060 using scenario-based projections.
- Study explicitly assumes continuation of current development patterns and limited wildfire adaptation measures.
- Scope is restricted to US territory; findings are not directly transferable to other fire regimes.
Our Take
For civil and infrastructure practitioners in the United States, a 2024–2060 wildfire-loss horizon effectively spans the full design life of many new assets, making fire-resilient materials, defensible-space planning and evacuation access core design criteria rather than optional add-ons.
New Civil Engineer’s broader Safety and Sustainability coverage (977 tag-matched pieces) increasingly links hazard projections to asset-management practice, so this wildfire-loss research is likely to feed into future guidance on lifecycle costing and insurance requirements for US-built structures.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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