Strong-to-very strong El Niño conditions, with an 83% chance of exceeding all events since 1950, are set to disrupt copper and nickel supply through early 2027 via drought, flooding and power shortages across Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia. Chilean and Peruvian copper hubs face flood risk to mines, smelters and ports—operations such as Los Bronces and El Teniente were previously halted in 2017—while Zambia and DRC copper smelters risk hydropower-driven load shedding. In Indonesia, drought has already forced output cuts at Morowali, with around 100,000 tonnes of NPI production affected.

Successive summer heatwaves caused more than 50,000 heat-related excess deaths across 854 European urban areas, according to joint modelling by Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. The analysis links mortality spikes to prolonged high night-time temperatures and dense urban morphology, where limited green infrastructure and high building thermal mass trap heat. For civil and infrastructure engineers, the findings strengthen the case for city-scale cooling strategies such as reflective pavements, shaded public realms and revised design criteria for heatwave return periods.

Storms Austen and Boelo are forecast to bring widespread heavy rain and high winds across the UK, prompting prime minister Andy Burnham to warn of a “winter of greater flooding”. Repeated storm systems over saturated catchments will test river and coastal defences, surface water drainage, and combined sewer capacity, particularly in low-lying urban areas. Civil and geotechnical engineers should expect increased pressure on temporary works, scour-critical assets, and inspection regimes for embankments, retaining structures and older culverts.