UK construction growth forecast cut to 1.7%: pipeline risks for project teams
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on The Construction Index
30 Second Briefing
Construction output in the UK is now forecast by the Construction Products Association to grow just 1.7% in 2026, down from 2.8% predicted in October, with private housing output cut to 1.5% growth and private housing RMI expected to contract by 1.0%. Infrastructure remains the main volume driver, with 3.9% growth in 2026 anchored by energy generation and grid projects, AMP8 water investment and ongoing work at Hinkley Point C despite HS2 and roads pipeline uncertainty. The CPA says the modest growth outlook depends heavily on commercial fit-out and refurbishment and timely delivery of public sector building programmes for schools, hospitals and prisons.
Technical Brief
- CPA winter forecast is a downgrade from October’s 2.8% to 1.7% output growth.
- Private housing growth for 2026 has been cut sharply from 4.0% to 1.5%.
- Supply-chain firms report a slowdown persisting since spring 2025 across key workload sectors.
- CPA cites “weak fundamentals” and geopolitical developments increasing risk aversion and delaying investment decisions.
- House-builders face a tightening trade-off between buyer affordability and development viability on new sites.
- Smaller house-builders are disproportionately hit by additional government-imposed costs affecting site viability.
- ECO domestic energy-efficiency scheme now ends March 2026, removing a short-term driver for retrofit work.
- Warm Homes Plan measures are not expected to generate material near-term growth in private housing RMI.
Our Take
With UK infrastructure output still forecast to grow in 2026, large regulated programmes like AMP8 and schemes such as Hinkley Point C, HS2 and RIS3 are likely to underpin workload for civils and geotechnical contractors even as wider construction slows.
The downgrade in private housing growth expectations for 2026 suggests materials and plant suppliers may lean more heavily on infrastructure pipelines, echoing patterns seen across other UK Infrastructure stories in our database where rail, road and energy work backfill softer residential demand.
The Construction Products Association’s more cautious outlook will be closely watched by plant-hire and lifting specialists already coordinating with Network Rail under the new crane guidance (28 November 2025 article), as flatter growth can intensify competition for rail-adjacent and major project packages.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
Related Articles
Related Industries & Products
Construction
Quality control software for construction companies with material testing, batch tracking, and compliance management.
Mining
Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.
QCDB-io
Comprehensive quality control database for manufacturing, tunnelling, and civil construction with UCS testing, PSD analysis, and grout mix design management.