Mining companies in 2026 face ESG risk dominated by geopolitical fragmentation, with Russia’s war in Ukraine, Middle East conflict and African coups driving sanctions exposure, trade route disruption and board‑level scenario planning on supply chains and project delivery. Tailings governance is shifting from voluntary to quasi‑regulatory, as ICMM reports 67% GISTM conformance, the UK High Court’s Samarco ruling widens negligence exposure, and the World Mine Tailings Failures database projects 13 catastrophic failures by 2029. Simultaneously, ISSB IFRS S2 climate disclosure, GRI 14: Mining Sector 2024 and TNFD uptake by 730+ organisations, including 179 financial institutions with $22 trillion in assets, are turning climate, water, land disturbance and biodiversity into hard conditions for capital and permitting.

US lawmakers have introduced a bipartisan bill to create a $2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve for critical minerals, with a seven-member board empowered to buy, store and sell materials such as rare earths, lithium, graphite and cobalt across US facilities. The reserve would prioritise recycled feedstock but also accept mined material, recycle sale proceeds back into operations, and allow allied countries to join with contributions of at least $100 million. Proponents aim to counter China’s control of about 60% of mined rare earths and most downstream processing, and to anchor a Western price benchmark for currently thinly traded minerals.

Kevin Rudd’s decision to step down as Australia’s ambassador to the US at the end of March injects uncertainty into a role that has been central to negotiating critical minerals, defence-industrial integration and US Inflation Reduction Act access for Australian projects. His replacement will inherit files covering lithium, rare earths and graphite supply chains, AUKUS-related technology transfer, and efforts to secure US offtake and financing for Australian mines via mechanisms such as the US Defence Production Act and Export-Import Bank. For miners, any gap or policy reset in Washington could slow permitting, funding decisions and long-term offtake agreements.