Southern Copper’s path to 1M‑tonne output: project and risk notes for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Southern Copper plans to lift copper output from 917,000 tonnes in 2026 to about 970,000 tonnes in 2028 and 1.06 million tonnes by 2029, driven mainly by the $1.1 billion Tia Maria project, now roughly halfway built with $693 million spent and $1.25 billion in 10‑year notes issued. Second‑quarter results showed $4.3 billion in sales, record adjusted EBITDA of $2.86 billion at a 67% margin, and $1.67 billion net income, despite a 12% production drop in Peru from lower grades at Toquepala and Cuajone. Tia Maria’s projected cash cost of $1.16/lb without by‑product credits and confirmed desalination infrastructure procurement will be closely watched against ongoing regulatory and social risks in Peru and illegal mining at Los Chancas.
Technical Brief
- Water licence for Tia Maria has been renewed, de-risking long-lead water supply and compliance.
- Desalination plant and associated equipment procurement are reported on schedule, critical for reducing freshwater conflict risk.
- Illegal mining at the Los Chancas project is actively slowing development, elevating security and workforce safety concerns.
- Proposed Mexican restrictions on new open pits are not retroactive, limiting regulatory safety changes to future projects.
- Management is deferring mine-planning responses to Peru’s incoming administration until formal mining canon proposals are issued.
- Material already in process is expected to lift H2 copper sales, implying sustained plant utilisation and continuous safety exposure.
- For similar Andean projects, desalination-based water strategies are becoming a key tool to mitigate social and permitting risk.
Our Take
With exchange inventories covering only about 15 days of global copper demand, Southern Copper’s plan to reach roughly 1.06 Mt by 2029 positions its low‑cost Peruvian and Mexican assets as important swing supply in what our database shows is a persistently tight copper market.
Tía María’s planned use of Komatsu autonomous haulage, highlighted in the June 2026 item on AHS deployment, combined with the assessed 120 tpa scandium oxide expansion at the Friedland‑backed project, suggests Southern Copper is quietly aligning both copper and scandium operations with higher automation and critical‑minerals credentials compared with most Latin American peers in our coverage.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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