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    Record gold near $4,500 and silver at $70: price cycle notes for mine planners

    December 24, 2025|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Record gold near $4,500 and silver at $70: price cycle notes for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Gold surged to a record just below $4,500/oz and silver traded above $70/oz for the first time, driven by safe-haven flows amid US oil tanker blockades off Venezuela and expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is up over 70% year-to-date, its strongest run since 1979, supported by central-bank buying and ETF inflows, with Goldman Sachs projecting $4,900/oz in 2026. Silver has climbed about 140% this year, amplified by October’s historic short squeeze, lingering supply dislocations between London and New York vaults, and a pending US Commerce Department critical-minerals probe.

    Technical Brief

    • Spot gold intraday move was 1.2%, setting a fresh all-time nominal price high.
    • Silver’s session gain reached 1.8%, pushing it through the $70/oz trading mark.
    • October’s gold peak hit $4,381/oz before a pullback and subsequent rapid recovery into year-end.
    • Central-bank purchases and ETF inflows are explicitly cited as the structural demand base for bullion.
    • Pepperstone strategist Ahmad Assiri links incremental safe-haven demand directly to US oil tanker seizures off Venezuela.
    • US President Trump’s trade policy shifts and Fed independence threats are identified as earlier catalysts for gold’s 2025 bull leg.
    • Silver market structure remains distorted, with “much” of available inventory concentrated in New York rather than London.
    • A US Commerce Department national-security probe into critical minerals imports is a key overhang for silver trade flows and potential tariffs.

    Our Take

    With gold up about 70% year‑to‑date and silver up roughly 140%, many marginal North American and Latin American precious‑metal projects in our database that were sub‑economic at earlier price decks are likely to move back into scoping or restart studies by 2026.

    The fact that these record prices are being framed through US macro actors such as the Federal Reserve and Commerce Department signals that dollar and rate expectations, rather than mine‑supply shocks, are currently the dominant driver for gold and silver, which can complicate long‑term price assumptions in project feasibility work.

    Across the 438 Mining stories in our coverage, only a handful involve such extreme annual moves in both gold and silver, suggesting that operators with by‑product silver credits in base‑metal or critical‑mineral projects may see unusually strong near‑term cash flow support if these levels persist into 2026.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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