Rare earth trade talks top mining trends: supply-chain lessons for project teams
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Rare earth elements have moved to the centre of trade negotiations as governments respond to China’s control of almost 90% of refined supply and most high-performance magnet output, Wood Mackenzie’s 2025 mega-trends report shows. Washington has led with a G7 action plan, an April 2024 critical minerals memorandum with Norway, an Oct. 27 mining and processing framework with Japan, and parallel rare earth agreements with Malaysia and Australia. Project-level responses include Arafura’s Nolans project targeting about 4% of global supply, Serra Verde’s US$465 million US development loan, and SRC–ReAlloys and Cyclic–Solvay offtakes linking new and recycled oxides into Western magnet supply chains.
Technical Brief
- Beijing’s April 2025 export controls added special licensing for selected rare earth oxides and magnets.
- Wood Mackenzie ranks rare earth trade leverage as the No. 2 “mega-trend” in 2025 energy/mining.
- China still accounts for more than 80% of global rare earth processing capacity, per WoodMac.
- Trump–Takaichi pact bundles rare earths with lithium, cobalt and nickel for integrated supply negotiations.
- For project developers, long‑term offtake frameworks are becoming as critical as resource grade in financing discussions.
Our Take
With China still handling more than 80% of rare earths processing and almost 90% of refined supply, the five‑year offtake between Saskatchewan Research Council and ReAlloys signals how even relatively small Western processing hubs are being locked into long‑term feedstock and customer relationships to de‑risk exposure to Chinese refiners.
The Nolans project’s expected 4% share of global rare earths supply, combined with Serra Verde’s US$465 million development loan, suggests that Australia and Brazil are emerging as the key non‑Chinese pillars in the rare earths pipeline tracked in our critical minerals coverage.
Cyclic Materials’ C$25 million research centre in Kingston, Ontario, points to recycling and secondary recovery becoming a serious parallel supply channel for rare earth elements in North America, complementing greenfield projects like Lofdal in Namibia that still face longer permitting and build‑out timelines.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
Related Articles
Related Industries & Products
Mining
Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.
CMRR-io
Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.
HYDROGEO-io
Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.
GEODB-io
Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.