Northern Star’s 2025 outlook: production discipline and capex signals for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on Australian Mining
30 Second Briefing
Northern Star Resources has reported a difficult December quarter but says it is on track for a stronger second half of the 2025–26 financial year, with production and cost guidance unchanged across its Australian gold operations. Management is banking on improved performance at key assets such as Kalgoorlie and Yandal, supported by ongoing capital spend on underground development and processing upgrades. For mine planners and geotechs, the message is to expect tighter operating discipline rather than major cutbacks, with current mine schedules and longer-term reserve development largely intact.
Technical Brief
- For geotechnical teams, the emphasis is likely to be on tighter dilution control and stope performance monitoring.
- Similar multi-asset gold operators may face comparable pressure to lift unit productivity without cutting development metres.
Our Take
Within our 158 gold‑tagged pieces, Australia features heavily as a lower‑risk jurisdiction, so Northern Star Resources’ performance into the second half of 2025–26 will be benchmarked against a crowded field of Australian gold operators rather than frontier projects.
The move by Manuka Resources to restart unhedged gold production in New South Wales by the June quarter of 2026 suggests that peers expect a supportive price environment, which could ease market pressure on Northern Star if its 2025–26 guidance is conservative after a difficult year-end.
Recent coverage of large-cap gold names such as Agnico Eagle reaffirming 2025 output underscores that investors are rewarding clear multi‑year production visibility, so Northern Star’s messaging around the 2025–26 period will likely be scrutinised more for consistency and delivery risk than for absolute growth rates.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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