Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Streamlined.

© 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    Projects

    Macquarie’s ‘oversupplied’ copper call: pricing and project signals for mine planners

    March 27, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Macquarie’s ‘oversupplied’ copper call: pricing and project signals for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper’s 16% price slide from January’s record, with May futures now around $12,000/t, is being called “overpriced, oversupplied and over the pond” by Macquarie, which cites more than 1 Mt of visible inventory growth since early 2025 and a 602,000 t market surplus last year. LME stocks are at six‑year highs, COMEX inventories are at record levels, and Macquarie estimates a further 480,000 t sitting off‑exchange in the US, drawn by CME‑LME arbitrage that previously pushed COMEX premiums above $2,000/t. The bank expects continued volatility driven mainly by investor positioning, Iran‑related geopolitics and uncertainty over a potential US Section 232 decision on copper imports by 30 June 2026, rather than by physical tightness.

    Technical Brief

    • Shanghai Futures Exchange base metals volumes in January jumped 80% versus December, indicating speculative inflows.
    • Aggregate copper open interest across NY, London and Shanghai rose by $9.5 billion in Dec–Jan, then fell $24.6 billion through Feb–Mar.
    • Macquarie’s 11-analyst commodities team (Geneva, Houston, London, Shanghai, Singapore) attributes the price spike mainly to investor flows.
    • COMEX copper premiums exceeded $2,000/t in Dec–Jan before compressing back towards historical levels.
    • Estimated 480,000 t of off‑exchange copper in the US is linked to CME–LME arbitrage positioning.
    • Excess metal concentration in the US is creating perceived tightness in other regions despite rising global stocks.
    • Chinese buyers have resumed spot purchasing as prices eased, with reported weekly inventory drawdowns domestically.
    • Outside China, spot physical premiums sit well below contract levels, signalling weak end‑use demand at current prices.

    Our Take

    Macquarie’s bearish stance on copper contrasts with its recent nickel outlook in March 2026, where it projected a shift from surplus to deficit, signalling that its base metals strategy is now highly differentiated by metal rather than uniformly bullish on ‘energy transition’ commodities.

    The earlier January 2026 coverage on potential US copper tariffs and critical minerals policy already framed copper as politically sensitive; Macquarie now calling the market oversupplied suggests policy risk may be a more important support for prices than underlying physical tightness in the near term.

    With copper and other base metals featuring in over 260 keyword-matched pieces in our database, this call from an 11-analyst Macquarie Strategy team is likely to be closely watched by project developers weighing whether to advance marginal copper assets versus pivoting to higher‑momentum critical minerals such as lithium, as seen at EnergyX’s Lonestar demonstration plant in Texas.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    Cemex and sensmore’s Rüdersdorf quarry: AI haulage lessons for mine planners
    Mining
    about 8 hours ago

    Cemex and sensmore’s Rüdersdorf quarry: AI haulage lessons for mine planners

    Cemex and Berlin-based startup sensmore are digitising operations at the 770-year-old Rüdersdorf limestone quarry in Germany using AI-based loading and haulage optimisation. On-board edge devices and radar sensors on wheel loaders and haul trucks feed real-time data into sensmore’s optimisation engine, which recommends bucket fill levels, truck–loader pairing and haul speeds. Early results show reduced idle times and more consistent crusher feed, signalling practical pathways to retrofit AI-driven dispatch and loading control into existing European quarry fleets without full autonomy.

    Mining
    about 8 hours ago

    Multotec spirals at Thaba JV: modular gravity circuit lessons for plant designers

    Multotec has supplied a customised suite of high-performance spiral concentrators to the Thaba JV chromite and PGM project in South Africa’s Limpopo province, providing an integrated gravity separation circuit tailored to the ore’s specific mineralogy. The solution is engineered to boost chromite and PGM recovery while tightening product grade control, with spiral configurations selected to allow rapid reconfiguration between different feed conditions and product specs. For plant designers and metallurgists, the key point is the emphasis on modular, flexible spiral layouts to sustain long-term performance as ore characteristics change.

    Mining
    about 8 hours ago

    Antofagasta copper ramp-up to 2030: design and risk notes for mine engineers

    Antofagasta plans to lift copper output by 30% by 2030, Executive Chairman and CEO Iván Arriagada told delegates at the World Mining Congress 2026, positioning the Chilean producer to meet surging critical minerals demand from the energy transition. The growth will come from brownfield expansions across its existing operations rather than new greenfield projects, implying higher stripping ratios, additional concentrator capacity and incremental tailings and water management upgrades. For engineers, the strategy signals sustained demand for large-scale pit optimisation, process debottlenecking and infrastructure life-extension work in northern Chile.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.

    AllGeotechnicalMiningInfrastructureMaterialsHazardsEnvironmentalSoftwarePolicy