Lundin Mining 2026 copper, gold cut: capex and production lens for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Lundin Mining shares fell 10.8% to C$32.72 after the company cut 2026 guidance to 310,000–335,000 tonnes of copper and 134,000–149,000 oz of gold, citing lower underground mining rates at the Candelaria operation in Chile. Caserones delivered a record >15,000 tonnes of copper in December and 132,881 tonnes for 2025, while Candelaria produced 145,471 tonnes, supported by higher mill throughput on softer ore. Lundin is maintaining elevated capex, with 2026 sustaining spend of $550 million and expansionary capex of $445 million, as it targets ~500,000 t/y copper via brownfield expansions and Vicuña district projects.
Technical Brief
- Q4 2025 output exceeded 87,000 t copper and 34,000 oz gold, indicating strong year-end plant availability.
- Caserones delivered 132,881 t copper for 2025, above plan, with >15,000 t in December alone.
- Candelaria’s 145,471 t copper in 2025 were supported by higher mill throughput on softer ore conditions.
- Across the three Latin American operations, Lundin reported consistently strong operating performance through 2025 despite guidance revisions.
- Mine sequencing adjustments are forecast to add a net 15,000 t copper across 2026–2027.
- Sequence changes are expected to contribute ~20,000 t additional copper in 2027, offsetting a 5,000 t 2026 reduction.
- 2026 consolidated cash costs are guided at US$1.90–2.10/lb Cu, framing margin sensitivity to grade and throughput.
- Exploration spend of US$53 million in 2026 will focus on in-mine and near-mine targets at Candelaria, Caserones and Chapada.
- Growth strategy hinges on brownfield expansions plus Vicuña district builds (Josemaría, Filo del Sol) to reach ~500,000 t/y Cu.
Our Take
The recent filing for Chilean environmental approval for a US$150 million upgrade at the Caserones copper-molybdenum mine suggests Lundin Mining is trying to stabilise output and water use in northern Chile just as its 2026 copper and gold guidance softens, indicating a pivot towards asset optimisation rather than volume growth in the near term.
With sustaining and expansionary capex in 2026 totalling nearly US$1 billion across assets such as Candelaria, Chapada and Caserones, Lundin Mining’s current guidance implies a capital-heavy phase that may compress free cash flow even if copper prices remain supportive, which is likely contributing to the share price reaction.
In our database of 725 Mining stories, copper items linked to the Vicuña district and the Chile–Argentina border, including projects like Josemaría and Filo del Sol, are increasingly framed around long lead times and permitting complexity, so Lundin’s within two to four year horizon may be viewed by the market as ambitious relative to regional execution risk.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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